中国纺织品在全球价值链中的位置变化研究

发布时间：2018-01-27 06:46

本文关键词： 中国纺织品全球价值链位置变化　出处：《陕西师范大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：伴随着上世纪50年代科学技术和信息技术的发展,贸易及通讯成本迅速下降,加速了人力、资本、技术等要素在世界范围内的流通,从而催生了一个新的业态——“全球价值链”。不同国家凭借自身不同的比较优势链入全球价值链,国际生产和贸易格局因此出现新变化。我国纺织品正是凭借自身劳动成本低廉的比较优势链入纺织品的全球价值链,并取得飞速发展。1992-2012年间,中国纺织品出口贸易总额从85.83亿美元增长至954.50亿美元,出口总额的增长高达10.12倍,成为拉动国民经济发展的支柱产业。同时,纺织行业作为劳动力密集型产业吸收了大量劳动力,现有直接就业者已经超过2000万,间接涉及一亿多农民的生计。纺织品作为关系我国经济发展和民众就业的重要产品,希望通过提升我国纺织品在全球价值链中的位置来获取更高的利润和更广阔的发展前景。然而,在2012年随教育部课题组赴广东和江苏的调研中发现,受劳动力成本大幅上升和全球经济不景气等因素的影响,我国纺织行业在提升其全球价值链位置的道路上举步维艰。我国纺织行业在全球价值链中的位置变化情况究竟如何、未来五年又会有怎样的变化、面临哪些挑战、该如何应对都成为学术界和业界关注的重点。为了回答上文提出的问题,本文首先从理论综述入手,对全球价值链、微笑曲线等相关理论进行了梳理,在整理相关文献的基础上,总结出全球价值链位置研究的具体衡量指标,综合各项考虑,最终选取出口相似度(ESI)作为衡量中国纺织品在全球价值链中位置变化的指标；尔后,论述了世界纺织行业发展的四个重要阶段和三次转移,着重介绍了中国纺织行业发展的三个重要时期；在对世界和中国纺织行业发展轮廓进行勾画后,根据联合国贸易发展会议数据库中SITC Rev.3分类数据,计算出1988-2012年间中国纺织品的ESI,并通过建立ARMA模型对2013①-2017年间中国纺织品的ESI进行预测,从而分析和预测中国纺织品在全球价值链中的位置变化。结论：中国纺织品在全球价值链中的位置虽有所上升,但还未能成功链入全球价值链高端环节。随后结合调研结果,分析中国纺织品在全球价值链的位置变化中所面临的挑战,并在此基础上提出对策性建议。
[Abstract]:In -50s, with the development of science and technology and information technology, the cost of trade and communication dropped rapidly, accelerating the circulation of human, capital, technology and other elements in the world. As a result, a new format of global value chain, "global value chain", has been created, which leads to new changes in the pattern of international production and trade as a result of which different countries join the global value chain by virtue of their different comparative advantages. China's textiles are linked to the global value chain of textiles by virtue of their low labor cost comparative advantage, and have made rapid development from 1992 to 2012. China's total textile export trade increased from US $eight billion five hundred and eighty-three million to US $95.45 billion, and the total export volume increased by as much as 10.12-fold, becoming the pillar industry for the development of the national economy. Textile industry as a labor-intensive industry has absorbed a large number of labor, the existing direct employment has more than 20 million. Indirectly involved in the livelihood of more than 100 million farmers. Textiles as an important product related to the economic development and employment of the people in China. We hope to gain higher profit and wider development prospect by upgrading our textile's position in the global value chain. However, in 2012, we found it in Guangdong and Jiangsu with the Ministry of Education research group. Affected by the sharp rise in labour costs and the global economic downturn and other factors. China's textile industry is struggling to improve its position in the global value chain. How does the position of China's textile industry in the global value chain change and what changes will take place in the next five years? What challenges to face and how to deal with them have become the focus of attention of academia and industry. In order to answer the above questions, this paper first from the theoretical review, the global value chain, smile curve and other related theories are combed, on the basis of sorting out the relevant literature. Summarizes the specific measurement indicators of the global value chain position research, synthesizes each consideration, finally selects export similarity (ESII) as the index to measure the position change of Chinese textiles in the global value chain; After that, it discusses the four important stages and three shifts of the world textile industry, and emphatically introduces the three important periods of the development of the Chinese textile industry. After drawing the outline of the development of the world and China's textile industry, the classification data of SITC Rev.3 in the database of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) are described. The ARMA of Chinese textiles from 1988 to 2012 was calculated, and the ESI of Chinese textiles in 20131-2017 was predicted by establishing ARMA model. Therefore, the position of Chinese textiles in the global value chain is analyzed and forecasted. Conclusion: the position of Chinese textiles in the global value chain has increased. However, it has not been successfully linked to the high end of the global value chain. Then, based on the research results, the challenges faced by Chinese textiles in the change of global value chain position are analyzed, and the corresponding suggestions are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：陕西师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.81

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