能源消费结构对我国能源安全影响力研究

发布时间：2018-02-02 22:33

本文关键词： 能源能源安全能源消费结构　出处：《天津商业大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：能源是人类活动和经济发展的基础物质。大规模工业化以前，由于人类活动的局限，能源消费较少，能源也很少为人们所关注。随着世界工业化进程的加快，能源越来越受到人们的重视，诸多有关能源的话题中，能源安全问题占据着越来越重要的地位。随着世界经济的进一步发展，能源安全问题将越来越突出。前人对能源安全的研究主要集中于对能源安全的定性分析，或是在分析能源安全影响因素的基础上构建能源安全预警、对中国能源安全进行预测等方面。本文力图在全面分析能源安全影响因素的前提下，从能源消费结构的角度分析不同消费结构对能源安全的影响方向和影响程度，进而提出提升我国能源安全的对策。按照“能源结构能源安全基础理论阐述——我国能源消费结构与能源安全现状分析——能源安全影响因素分析——能源安全指标体系构建和回归分析——能源安全对策研究”的逻辑思路展开。第一章是导论部分，主要介绍了低碳经济约束下中国现有能源结构与能源安全的背景，提出研究能源消费结构对能源安全影响的意义，对能源安全的研究现状进行梳理，寻找到从能源消费结构角度分析对能源安全影响方向和影响程度的切入点，并指出本文的研究方法和创新点。第二章对能源结构和能源安全基础理论做了论述。第三章分析了我国能源消费结构和能源安全的现状。第四章全面分析研究能源安全的各种影响因素，包括能源结构因素、能源供应因素、经济发展因素、环境因素、价格因素五个方面，分析了它们对能源安全的影响机制和影响方向。第五章构建了能源安全指标体系，对能源消费结构与能源安全的关联性进行回归分析，进而得出不同能源消费结构对于能源安全的影响方向和影响程度，得出的主要结论有：（1）煤炭、石油和天然气消费结构对能源供应安全和使用安全的影响是负向的，电力消费结构对能源供应安全和使用安全的影响是正向的；（2）对能源供应安全起负向作用的煤炭、石油和天然气消费结构中，煤炭对能源供应安全影响最小，石油次之，天然气影响最大，电力对能源供应安全影响力大于其他三者影响力之和；（3）对能源使用安全起负向作用的煤炭、石油和天然气消费结构中，煤炭对于能源使用安全的影响最大，石油次之，天然气影响最小，电力消费结构影响力较小，但其影响力是正向的，由于其在能源消费结构中所占比重较低，未来有较大的提升空间。本文最后针对回归分析结果提出增强我国能源安全的对策。
[Abstract]:Energy is the basic material of human activities and economic development. Before large-scale industrialization, due to the limitations of human activities, energy consumption is less, and energy is rarely concerned by people. With the acceleration of the world industrialization process. More and more attention has been paid to energy, energy security is playing an increasingly important role in many energy topics. With the further development of the world economy. Energy security issues will become more and more prominent. Previous researches on energy security mainly focus on qualitative analysis of energy security, or on the basis of analysis of the factors affecting energy security to build energy security early warning. This paper tries to make a comprehensive analysis of the influencing factors of energy security on the basis of the prediction of China's energy security. From the point of view of energy consumption structure, this paper analyzes the influence direction and degree of different consumption structure on energy security, and then puts forward some countermeasures to promote energy security in China. According to " Analysis of Energy consumption structure and current situation of Energy Security in China--Analysis of factors affecting Energy Security -Construction of Energy Security Index system and regression Analysis-Energy Security Countermeasures. Research " The first chapter is the introduction. This paper mainly introduces the background of energy structure and energy security in China under the restriction of low-carbon economy, puts forward the significance of studying the influence of energy consumption structure on energy security, and combs the current research status of energy security. From the perspective of energy consumption structure to analyze the impact on energy security direction and impact degree of entry point. The second chapter discusses the basic theory of energy structure and energy security. Chapter 3 analyzes the current situation of energy consumption structure and energy security in China. Chapter 4th comprehensively analyzes the energy consumption and energy security. Various factors affecting source security. Including energy structure factors, energy supply factors, economic development factors, environmental factors, price factors. In chapter 5th, the index system of energy security is constructed, and the correlation between energy consumption structure and energy security is analyzed by regression analysis. Then the influence direction and degree of different energy consumption structure on energy security are obtained, and the main conclusion is: 1) Coal. The influence of oil and gas consumption structure on energy supply security and use safety is negative, and the influence of electricity consumption structure on energy supply security and use safety is positive. In the consumption structure of oil and natural gas, coal has the least impact on energy supply security, followed by oil and natural gas. The influence of electric power on the security of energy supply is greater than the sum of the other three. In the consumption structure of oil and natural gas, coal has the greatest influence on the safety of energy use, followed by oil and natural gas. The influence of electricity consumption structure is small, but its influence is positive, because of its low proportion in the energy consumption structure. There is much room for improvement in the future. Finally, this paper puts forward the countermeasures to enhance the energy security in China according to the results of regression analysis.
【学位授予单位】：天津商业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F206;F426.2

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