黄河三角洲高效生态经济区工业结构调整与碳减排对策研究

发布时间：2018-02-15 23:54

本文关键词： 工业结构碳排放效应 LMDI分解模型 LEAP模型黄河三角洲高效生态经济区　出处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2015年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：通过调整工业结构控制和减缓碳排放是当前完成节能减排任务的重要途径。本文通过碳排放测算方法和Tapio脱钩状态分析模型,首先分析了黄河三角洲高效生态经济区(以下简称黄区)工业与碳排放的现状;然后利用LMDI分解模型分析了影响碳排放的主要因素;运用LEAP模型,对黄区工业碳排放情景进行设置预测;最后提出了对策建议。得出以下重要结论:12005-2012年黄区碳排放量上升趋势明显。其中,重点控排行业的碳排放量占碳排放总量的比重在85%以上;但碳排放强度呈下降趋势且处于相对脱钩状态。2经济总量是碳排放增加的主要因素,产业结构和技术效率是碳减排的主要因素,但产业结构的减排效果不明显,这也意味着其减排潜力较大。3比较基准情景、低碳情景和强化低碳情景,强化低碳情景下的碳减排潜力最大,但此情景下的经济社会发展将会受到一定程度的影响,而低碳情景下的发展模式相对较为合理。依据上述结论,从产业结构、能源结构及技术进步等方面提出对策建议,以期优化黄区工业结构、有效控制和减缓碳排放,实现经济与环境的协调发展。
[Abstract]:Controlling and reducing carbon emissions by adjusting industrial structure is an important way to accomplish the task of energy saving and emission reduction. This paper first analyzes the present situation of industry and carbon emission in the Yellow River Delta efficient Ecological Economic Zone (hereinafter referred to as the Yellow River region); then analyzes the main factors affecting carbon emissions by using the LMDI decomposition model; and uses the LEAP model, The industrial carbon emission scenarios in the Yellow region are predicted, and the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward. The following important conclusions are drawn: the rising trend of carbon emissions in the Yellow region from 2005 to 2012 is obvious. The proportion of carbon emissions in the total amount of carbon emissions in the key emission control industry is over 85%, but the intensity of carbon emissions is decreasing and the total economic volume is relatively decoupled. 2. 2 the main factors for the increase of carbon emissions are the total amount of carbon emissions. Industrial structure and technical efficiency are the main factors of carbon emission reduction, but the emission reduction effect of industrial structure is not obvious, which also means that its emission reduction potential is greater than the baseline scenario, low carbon scenario and enhanced low carbon scenario. The potential of carbon emission reduction under the enhanced low-carbon scenario is greatest, but the economic and social development under this scenario will be affected to a certain extent, while the development model under the low-carbon scenario is relatively reasonable. In order to optimize the industrial structure, control and reduce carbon emissions effectively, and realize the coordinated development of economy and environment, the paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions on energy structure and technological progress.
【作者单位】：山东师范大学人口·资源与环境学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“典型人地关系地域系统可持续性评估和生态环境安全预警研究”(编号:41271553) 2013年“黄河三角洲高效生态经济区”重大课题项目部分结题成果
【分类号】：X321;F424.0

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