我国能源问题与环境发展战略研究
发布时间:2018-02-16 03:14
本文关键词: 能源消费 能源效率 能源供需 低碳 环境污染 战略 出处:《南京信息工程大学》2014年硕士论文 论文类型:学位论文
【摘要】:随着社会生产力的发展,人类对能源的需求量日益增大。但是,当今世界所使用的能源,绝大多数仍来自于地球,人类对能源的开采和利用,各种能源资源日渐枯竭,能否满足未来世界不断增加的能源需求,是人类共同面临的问题。环境问题是关系到人类生存和发展的又一重大问题。当今世界环境污染十分严重,且有进一步恶化的趋势。能源的生产和消费过程中产生的污染,是引起环境问题最主要的因素。化石燃料的大量使用,导致有毒有害气体和烟尘的大量排放而污染环境,同时也导致了大量二氧化碳等温室气体的排放。因此,实施以低碳经济为核心的节能减排、清洁生产、提高能源利用率是我国未来能源发展战略的必由之路。 本文开始先对能源、环境和低碳经济的概念进行界定并介绍了相关研究的前沿动态,应用历史数据统计方法探讨了我国能源生产消费、经济发展和环境保护的相互关系,通过超效率DEA模型分析我国能源消费效率、能源消费环境效率以及能源消费经济效率,并在此基础上对我国上述效率曲线进行敏感性分析;运用灰色预测方法对我国能源消费进行预测,并讨论我国能源生产消费供需问题;然后提出我国能源发展存在结构失衡、消费成本较高、效率低下、供需矛盾等四大问题;最后针对上述问题提出以低碳为核心的能源发展战略,结合我国最新环保法从环境政策、环境技术和环境管理层面加以分析探讨。研究结论如下:(1)煤炭和石油的成为我国能源消耗的两大主要品种,但我国近年来已开始注重对天然气、水电、核电、风电等清洁能源的利用;(2)我国产业结构正处于变动之中,但我国在产业结构调整上力度并不是很大,第二产业比重大,耗能高,仍是我国能源管理重点,产业结构变动对降低我国能源消耗并未产生实质性影响;(3)我国能源消费环境效率未引起足够重视,单位产品能耗与国际先进水平差距逐渐减小,但形势依然严峻,能源利用效率不高;(4)我国当前能源生产消费供需失衡,能源安全问题将会凸显。 论文主要存在以下创新之处:以我国能源生产消费和经济发展方式为主题,紧紧围绕能源与经济、能源与环境、环境与经济三个层面进行定性讨论与数量分析,试图寻找未来我国能源发展的有效路径。
[Abstract]:With the development of social productivity, the demand for energy is increasing. However, most of the energy used in the world still comes from the earth. Whether or not we can meet the increasing energy demand of the world in the future is a common problem facing mankind. The environmental problem is another important problem related to the survival and development of mankind. The environmental pollution in the world today is very serious. Pollution from the production and consumption of energy is the most important factor causing environmental problems. The extensive use of fossil fuels results in a large discharge of toxic and harmful gases and soot and pollutes the environment, At the same time, it also leads to a large amount of greenhouse gas emissions such as carbon dioxide. Therefore, the implementation of low carbon economy as the core of energy saving and emission reduction, clean production, improving energy utilization is the only way to the future energy development strategy of our country. In this paper, the concepts of energy, environment and low-carbon economy are defined, and the frontier trends of related research are introduced. The relationship among energy production, consumption, economic development and environmental protection in China is discussed by means of historical data statistics. The energy consumption efficiency, energy consumption environment efficiency and energy consumption economic efficiency are analyzed by super-efficiency DEA model, and the sensitivity of these efficiency curves is analyzed. This paper uses grey forecast method to forecast energy consumption in China, and discusses the supply and demand of energy production and consumption in China, and then points out that there are four major problems in energy development in China, such as structural imbalance, high consumption cost, low efficiency and contradiction between supply and demand. Finally, aiming at the above problems, the paper puts forward the energy development strategy with low-carbon as the core, and combines the latest environmental protection law of our country from the environmental policy. Environmental technology and environmental management are analyzed and discussed. The conclusions are as follows: 1) Coal and petroleum have become the two major types of energy consumption in China, but in recent years China has begun to focus on natural gas, hydropower, and nuclear power. The utilization of clean energy, such as wind power, is in the process of being changed. However, the adjustment of industrial structure in our country is not very strong. The secondary industry has a large proportion and high energy consumption, which is still the key point of energy management in our country. The change of industrial structure has not had a substantial impact on the reduction of energy consumption in China. (3) the environmental efficiency of energy consumption in China has not attracted enough attention, and the gap between energy consumption per unit product and the international advanced level has gradually decreased, but the situation is still grim. Energy use efficiency is not high (4) China's current energy production and consumption supply and demand imbalance, energy security issues will be highlighted. The main innovations of this paper are as follows: the qualitative discussion and quantitative analysis of energy and economy, energy and environment, environment and economy are the main themes of energy production, consumption and economic development of our country, and focus on three aspects: energy and economy, energy and environment, environment and economy. This paper tries to find the effective path of energy development in the future.
【学位授予单位】:南京信息工程大学
【学位级别】:硕士
【学位授予年份】:2014
【分类号】:F426.2;X24
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