江苏省煤炭消费与经济增长关系的时空差异研究

发布时间：2018-02-16 17:53

本文关键词： 江苏省煤炭消费与经济增长时间演变空间差异　出处：《南京师范大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：煤炭资源是我国最重要的能源资源,煤炭的开发利用为国民经济和能源工业发展做出了巨大的贡献。目前,煤炭在江苏能源消费结构中占60%左右,煤炭在消费结构中的主体地位形成了大规模的用煤需求。然而江苏却是一个煤炭资源相对匮乏的省份,供需矛盾尖锐,因此,研究江苏省煤炭消费与经济增长关系的时空差异,对于深入了解全省及各地区煤炭消费与经济增长情况,探索促使经济发展与煤炭消费相协调的发展道路,实现经济、社会和生态的可持续发展具有重要意义。本文首先根据江苏省1985-2012年27年的时间序列数据,分析江苏省经济增长、煤炭消费的时间演变特征,在此基础上分析了江苏省煤炭消费与经济增长之间的协整因果关系,得出江苏省煤炭消费与经济增长之间存在着长期的协整关系,并通过格兰杰因果检验得出江苏省1985-2012年煤炭消费与经济增长之间存在着单向的因果关系,即经济增长是促进煤炭消费增长的原因。然后采用相对极差、加权变异系数和Jenks自然断裂系统分类法等方法,分别对2001-2010年江苏全省,苏南、苏中和苏北三大区域之间,三大区域内部以及13个地级市煤炭消费空间差异的演变进行了研究,结果显示,江苏省煤炭消费的空间差异呈逐步上升趋势,苏南、苏中和苏北的绝对差异也在拉大；苏北地区的内部差异最大,苏中其次,苏南最小；各地级市煤炭消费类型的划分与变化与全省的经济格局基本一致。最后提出了江苏经济与煤炭协调发展的建议：第一,控制煤炭消耗量,发展清洁能源；第二,依靠科技进步,提高煤炭利用效率；第三,因地制宜,促进区域共同发展；第四,进一步完善和落实相关法律规定,提高全民节能环保意识。
[Abstract]:Coal resources are the most important energy resources in China. The development and utilization of coal have made great contributions to the development of national economy and energy industry. At present, coal accounts for about 60% of the energy consumption structure in Jiangsu Province. The dominant position of coal in the consumption structure has formed a large-scale demand for coal. However, Jiangsu is a province with relatively scarce coal resources, and the contradiction between supply and demand is sharp. Therefore, the spatio-temporal differences between coal consumption and economic growth in Jiangsu Province are studied. It is of great significance to understand the situation of coal consumption and economic growth in the whole province and all regions, to explore the way to promote the coordination of economic development and coal consumption, and to realize the sustainable development of economy, society and ecology. Based on the time series data of Jiangsu Province from 1985 to 2012, this paper analyzes the time evolution characteristics of Jiangsu economic growth and coal consumption, and then analyzes the cointegration causality between coal consumption and economic growth in Jiangsu Province. It is concluded that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between coal consumption and economic growth in Jiangsu Province, and by Granger causality test, there is a one-way causal relationship between coal consumption and economic growth in Jiangsu Province from 1985 to 2012. That is, economic growth is the reason to promote the growth of coal consumption. Then, by using the methods of relative extreme difference, weighted coefficient of variation and Jenks classification of natural fracture system, the author compares the three major regions of Jiangsu province, southern Jiangsu, central Jiangsu and northern Jiangsu from 2001 to 2010, respectively. The evolution of the spatial difference of coal consumption in three regions and 13 prefectural cities has been studied. The results show that the spatial difference of coal consumption in Jiangsu Province is gradually rising, and the absolute difference among south, middle and north of Jiangsu is also increasing. The internal difference of north Jiangsu is the biggest, the middle of Jiangsu is the second, and the south of Jiangsu is the smallest. The classification and change of coal consumption type in each prefectural level are basically consistent with the economic pattern of the whole province. Finally, the suggestions for the coordinated development of Jiangsu economy and coal are put forward: first, To control coal consumption and develop clean energy; second, to improve the efficiency of coal use by relying on scientific and technological progress; third, to take measures according to local conditions to promote regional common development; and (4th) to further improve and implement relevant laws and regulations, Improve the awareness of energy conservation and environmental protection.
【学位授予单位】：南京师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.21;F127

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