基于LMDI法的能源消费及碳排放影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-02-22 22:11

本文关键词： 对数平均迪氏指数法(LMDI) 因素分解能源消费及碳排放结构效应　出处：《天津大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文以能源消费和碳排放为研究基点,运用对数平均迪氏指数法(LMDI法)从国家、地市、行业三个层次进行因素分解实证研究,寻求碳减排对策。首先以统计年鉴行业分类为参考,将中国所有行业分为八大行业,对其进行能源消费碳排放变化趋势分析并进行因素分解;其次,选择典型城市天津作为研究对象,重点分析1995-2010年天津市碳排放及影响因素贡献量,并进行情景分析,着重考量结构效应对碳排放的影响;最后,重点研究了高能耗行业—钢铁行业能源消耗趋势及主要影响因素。通过研究,本文结论如下:(1)不论是中国、天津市,还是钢铁行业,在近十年当中,随着经济的飞速发展,能源消费及碳排放量均呈大幅上升趋势,但能耗强度有所下降。(2)目前来看,经济效应和能源强度效应在我国不同维度不同行业的能源消费碳排放中均起到最主要的影响作用。前者主要是拉动作用,极大的促进了能源消费碳排放的增长;后者主要是减缓作用,从一定程度上抑制了经济因素的拉动效应,对碳排放量的减缓起到一定作用。(3)结构效应虽然在大部分的分析中贡献量计算结果较小,但是结构效应对能源消费碳排放的作用不可忽视。文章对中国八大产业的分析中,更详细的产业分化使得结构效应对碳排放的作用开始显现;在对天津市能源消费碳排放的分析中,将结构效应累积贡献量单独与碳排放量变化趋势相比,就发现结构效应对碳排放的潜在影响,情景分析更证明了今后能源及产业结构优化将成为控制能源消费碳排放的重要途径之一;在对中国钢铁行业能源消费进行分析时,同样是通过累积贡献量凸显出结构效应对能源消费的影响。
[Abstract]:Based on energy consumption and carbon emissions, this paper uses logarithmic average Dee index (LMDI) to analyze the factors from three levels: country, city and industry. First of all, taking the statistical yearbook industry classification as the reference, all industries in China are divided into eight industries, and the energy consumption carbon emissions change trend analysis and factor decomposition; secondly, Select Tianjin as the research object, focus on the analysis of the contribution of carbon emissions and influence factors in Tianjin from 1995 to 2010, and carry out scenario analysis, focus on the impact of structural effects on carbon emissions; finally, This paper focuses on the energy consumption trend and main influencing factors of high energy consumption industry-iron and steel industry. Through the research, the conclusion of this paper is as follows: (1) No matter in China, Tianjin, or iron and steel industry, in the past ten years, with the rapid development of economy, Energy consumption and carbon emissions both show a significant upward trend, but the intensity of energy consumption has decreased. The economic effect and the energy intensity effect play the most important role in the energy consumption carbon emissions of different industries in different dimensions of our country. The former is mainly a pull effect, which greatly promotes the growth of energy consumption carbon emissions; The latter is mainly a mitigation effect, which to a certain extent inhibits the pull effect of economic factors, and plays a certain role in the mitigation of carbon emissions. However, the effect of structural effect on carbon emissions from energy consumption should not be ignored. In the analysis of the eight major industries in China, more detailed industrial differentiation makes the effect of structural effect on carbon emissions begin to appear. In the analysis of carbon emissions from energy consumption in Tianjin, the potential effects of structural effects on carbon emissions are found by comparing the cumulative contribution of structural effects with the changing trend of carbon emissions. The scenario analysis also proves that the optimization of energy and industrial structure will be one of the important ways to control carbon emissions from energy consumption in the future. It also highlights the impact of structural effects on energy consumption through cumulative contributions.
【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.2;X24

【相似文献】