基于综合评价法的抽水蓄能电站项目经济效益研究

发布时间：2018-02-26 04:10

本文关键词： 抽水蓄能电站经济效益层次分析法模糊综合评价　出处：《华北电力大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：抽水蓄能电站以其独特的结构和运行方式,对保证电网安全稳定运行有着不可替代的作用。近年来我国已有若干抽水蓄能电站投入运行,并新建大量抽水蓄能电站,但抽水蓄能电站仍然存在投资主体单一、电价机制不健全等问题,并且其独特功能和巨大的经济效益也并未得到充分认识,这极不利于抽水蓄能电站的建设和运行管理。要解决这些问题,需要从根本上入手,即从根本上认识抽水蓄能电站的功能,全面认识抽水蓄能电站在电网中的功能与效益。本文首先分析了抽水蓄能电站在电网中的作用,建立了“功能效益”的概念。然后在电站的国民经济评价、财务效益分析和功能效益三方面选取了若干指标,构成抽水蓄能电站经济效益评价的指标体系。为了获得较好的综合评价效果,研究分析了常用的综合评价方法,分析了各种方法的特点和适用场合,最终选择模糊综合评价法用于构建整体评价模型,并用层次分析法确定指标体系的权重。经典层次分析法按九标度原则建立判断矩阵,当同层次因素较多时,决策者将难以保证判断准则的一致性,从而导致判断矩阵不可靠。本文应用改进型层次分析法,使用三标度原则,使决策者易于判断。并给出了改进型层次分析法完整的操作步骤,方法能满足一致性要求。指标体系的各指标有着不同的性质、量纲、取值范围,必须对评价指标进行无量纲化处理,将其转化到同一个评价尺度下。在模糊综合评价法的框架下,针对定量指标和定性指标分别给出了隶属度计算方法,尤其是详细给出了正向定量指标、负向定量指标和中间型定量指标的隶属度函数分布图。根据以上研究,根据模糊综合评价法的基本原理建立一套完整的经济效益综合评价模型,并应用于江西洪屏抽水蓄能电站的经济效益分析。还将该评价模型拓展应用于多个抽水蓄能电站经济效益的横向对比研究,这将为择优抽水蓄能电站予以支持时提供决策依据。
[Abstract]:With its unique structure and operation mode, pumped storage power station plays an irreplaceable role in ensuring the safe and stable operation of power grid. In recent years, a number of pumped storage power stations have been put into operation in China, and a large number of new pumped storage power stations have been built. However, the Pumped-storage Power Station still has some problems, such as single investment subject, imperfect electricity price mechanism, and its unique function and enormous economic benefits are not fully recognized. This is extremely disadvantageous to the construction and operation management of pumped storage power station. In order to solve these problems, we need to fundamentally understand the function of pumped storage power station, and fully understand the function and benefit of pumped storage power station in power network. In this paper, the function of pumped-storage power station in power network is analyzed, and the concept of "functional benefit" is established. Then, some indexes are selected in the aspects of national economic evaluation, financial benefit analysis and functional benefit of the power station. The index system of economic benefit evaluation of pumped storage power station is constituted. In order to obtain better comprehensive evaluation effect, this paper studies and analyzes the common comprehensive evaluation methods, analyzes the characteristics and applicable situations of various methods, and finally selects the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to construct the overall evaluation model. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used to determine the weight of the index system. The classical AHP establishes the judgment matrix according to the nine-scale principle. When there are many factors at the same level, the decision-makers will find it difficult to ensure the consistency of the judgment criteria. In this paper, the improved Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the principle of three scales are used to make the decision makers easy to judge, and the complete operation steps of the improved AHP are given. The method can meet the requirements of consistency. Each index of the index system has different properties, dimensionality and value range, so the evaluation index must be dimensionless. Under the framework of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, the calculation methods of membership degree for quantitative index and qualitative index are given respectively, especially the positive quantitative index is given in detail. The distribution of membership function of negative quantitative index and intermediate quantitative index. According to the above research, according to the basic principle of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, a set of comprehensive evaluation model of economic benefit is established. It is also applied to the economic benefit analysis of Hongping pumped Storage Power Station in Jiangxi Province. The evaluation model is also extended to the horizontal comparative study of the economic benefits of several pumped storage power stations, which will provide a decision basis for the selection of optimal pumped-storage power stations to be supported.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.91;F426.61

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