低碳视角下的中国钢铁行业碳排放分析

发布时间：2018-02-26 11:06

本文关键词： 碳排放钢铁行业灰色预测周期分析因素分解 LMDI　出处：《福州大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在近几年发展当中,我国钢铁产业二氧化碳排放量呈现总量大、增长快、结构差的特征,在碳排放量上是仅次于电力行业和石油化工行业的第三大行业。但同时,我们应该看到,随着环境保护越来越为各国所重视,低碳经济的概念逐渐深入人心,当前各国政府更加注重GDP发展的质量,绿色GDP成为我国政府近年来所倡导的目标。而钢铁企业作为资源消耗较大、排放较重的产业之一,在生产过程中排放出大量的温室气体,随着全球变暖,在各国不断呼吁降低温室气体排放的大前提下,钢铁行业对我国在接下来的发展过程当中的低碳环保战略负有较大的减排义务。本文第一部分首先针对全球当前的所面临的碳排放形势作出了初步介绍,之后再着落到我国钢铁行业上,并且结合各国钢铁工业进行介绍,同时指出我国钢铁行业在当前形势下所面临的问题,再次结合国内外研究成果对于钢铁产业的低碳化进行了初步的剖析。第二部分,针对钢铁行业的现状进行分析,主要从当前现状、行业特征、存在问题、三个角度进行切入,其中,规模大、产能高、高附加值产品生产能力不足、污染严重是其存在的主要问题。并对去年的情况进行相应回顾,指出即将面对的新形势。第三部分,介绍了灰色预测模型,针对中国GDP的增长进行预测,逻辑是,钢铁产业发展与整体经济的发展息息相关,同时测算其相应的灰色关联度,通过针对GDP的值进行模拟预测,去观测GDP的发展模式,模拟值至2015年。同时,通过GDP与钢产量之间的相关系数将两者进行挂钩,测算钢铁产量的增长的趋势。并且利用三阶自回归周期分析,对粗钢月度产量进行分析,估计其钢产量生产周期。第四部分,方法上采用对数均值迪式分解法(LMDI),数据方面采用1996-2013年我国钢铁产业中主要原料数据,在分析了能源结构、能源效率、排放强度、规模效益等因素对我国钢铁产业二氧化碳排放影响的基础上,分析不同阶段各个影响因素对于中国钢铁产业二氧化碳排放量的不同影响,对于各个阶段的排放原因进行了一定的分析。第五部分,提出相应的减排建议,从技术、政策以及产业链模式等角度提出个人的观点,指出我国钢铁行业具有巨大的减排潜力,应当在后续的经济发展中发挥更大的作用。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the carbon dioxide emissions of iron and steel industry in China have shown the characteristics of large amount, rapid growth and poor structure, which is the third largest industry after the electric power industry and petrochemical industry in terms of carbon emissions. But at the same time, We should see that with environmental protection being paid more and more attention to, the concept of low-carbon economy is becoming more and more popular, and governments are paying more attention to the quality of GDP development. Green GDP has become the goal advocated by our government in recent years. As one of the industries with large resource consumption and heavy emission, iron and steel enterprises emit a lot of greenhouse gases in the production process, with the global warming. In the context of repeated calls by countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, The iron and steel industry has a greater obligation to reduce emissions in China's low-carbon environmental protection strategy in the course of its subsequent development. The first part of this paper first makes a preliminary introduction to the current carbon emission situation facing the world. Then it falls into the steel industry of our country, and introduces the iron and steel industry in various countries. At the same time, it points out the problems faced by the steel industry in our country under the current situation. The second part analyzes the current situation of iron and steel industry, mainly from the current situation, industry characteristics, existing problems, three angles. Among them, large scale, high production capacity, insufficient production capacity of high value-added products and serious pollution are its main problems. Review the situation of last year and point out the new situation that will be faced in the third part. This paper introduces the grey forecasting model and forecasts the growth of GDP in China. The logic is that the development of iron and steel industry is closely related to the development of the whole economy. At the same time, the corresponding grey correlation degree is calculated and simulated by the value of GDP. To observe the development model of GDP, the simulation value is up to 2015. At the same time, through the correlation coefficient between GDP and steel output, the growth trend of iron and steel production is measured, and the third order autoregressive cycle analysis is used. The monthly output of crude steel is analyzed, and its steel production cycle is estimated. 4th parts. The logarithmic mean dichotomy method is used in the method, and the main raw material data of China's iron and steel industry from 1996 to 2013 are used in the data aspect. The energy structure is analyzed. On the basis of the influence of energy efficiency, emission intensity, scale benefit and other factors on carbon dioxide emissions of China's iron and steel industry, this paper analyzes the different effects of different factors on carbon dioxide emissions of China's iron and steel industry in different stages. In part 5th, the author puts forward some suggestions on emission reduction, puts forward personal views from the perspectives of technology, policy and industrial chain model, and points out that China's iron and steel industry has great potential for emission reduction. We should play a greater role in the subsequent economic development.
【学位授予单位】：福州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.31

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