基于SD的我国汽车制造业财务预警模型研究

发布时间：2018-02-28 19:07

本文关键词： 系统动力学财务预警汽车制造业　出处：《兰州交通大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着市场经济一体化进程的深入，企业经营的不确定性风险进一步加大，企业外部的宏观环境、行业环境到企业内部的公司治理，都会对企业的生存发展产生牵一发而动全身的效果。如何准确的及时定位企业的风险源，实现快速有效的管理，是避免企业陷入财务困境,提高企业竞争力,占有先机的根本途径。首先，本文通过对国内外财务预警理论和预警方法总结性的介绍，特别是系统动力学自身的特点及其在预警研究中的应用，说明该方法在分析我国汽车制造业预警研究中的合理性和适用性。其次，本文以系统论和战略风险管理为理论基础，系统论的引入确立了从企业外部环境到企业内部控制的预警研究思路，在风险管理的理论基础上提出了企业战略风险控制的测度指标体系。然后，通过分析我国汽车制造业目前发展的国际国内环境，从横向比较的角度找到汽车制造业发展的特点及劣势。从系统动力学的理论出发，，按照系统动力学建模步骤依次明确建模目的和系统边界,通过系统结构分析建立因果关系图、流图和变量方程。最后，以上海汽车集团股份有限公司为例，收集并理财务预警系统的相关数据，利用Versim软件仿真模拟系统6至10年的数据和动态变化，通过趋势分析，找出企业发展的态势和潜在的问题，并对影响系统的非财务因素和关键因素进行敏感性分析，说明模型预测的可靠性和适用性，结合企业财务效率指标分析和内部控制效果分析为该上市公司的财务预警决策提供合理的参考。通过以上研究过程，本文建立了企业内外部环境风险的测度指标体系，构建了系统考察企业财务风险的财务预警模型。这将有利于系统动力学在汽车制造业财务预警领域的应用，对全方位的考虑企业财务风险，有效地实现企业财务危机预警和控制具有一定的理论和现实意义。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of the process of market economy integration, the uncertainty risk of enterprise management is further increased. The external macro environment, industry environment and internal corporate governance of the enterprise, How to accurately and timely locate the risk source of the enterprise and realize the rapid and effective management is to avoid the enterprise from falling into financial distress and to improve the competitiveness of the enterprise. The fundamental way to take advantage of the opportunity. First of all, this paper introduces the theory and methods of financial early warning at home and abroad, especially the characteristics of system dynamics and its application in early warning research. The rationality and applicability of this method in the early warning research of automobile manufacturing industry in China are explained. Secondly, based on the theory of system theory and strategic risk management, the introduction of system theory establishes the idea of early-warning research from the external environment to the internal control of enterprises. Based on the theory of risk management, the measurement index system of enterprise strategic risk control is put forward. Then, by analyzing the international and domestic environment of the current development of China's automobile manufacturing industry, we find out the characteristics and disadvantages of the development of the automobile manufacturing industry from the perspective of horizontal comparison, and proceed from the theory of system dynamics. According to the modeling steps of system dynamics, the purpose of modeling and the boundary of the system are defined in turn, and the causality diagram, flow diagram and variable equation are established through system structure analysis. Finally, take Shanghai Automotive Group Co., Ltd as an example, collect and manage the relevant data of financial early warning system, use Versim software to simulate the data and dynamic changes of the system for 6 to 10 years, and analyze the trend through the trend analysis. To find out the situation and potential problems of enterprise development, and to analyze the sensitivity of non-financial factors and key factors that affect the system, and to explain the reliability and applicability of the model prediction. Combined with the analysis of financial efficiency index and internal control effect, it provides a reasonable reference for the financial early warning decision of the listed company. Through the above research process, this paper establishes the internal and external environmental risk measurement index system. The financial early-warning model of enterprise financial risk is constructed, which will be beneficial to the application of system dynamics in the field of financial early warning of automobile manufacturing industry, and consider the financial risk of enterprise in all directions. It is of theoretical and practical significance to realize the early warning and control of enterprise financial crisis effectively.
【学位授予单位】：兰州交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F406.7;F426.471

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