中国对外贸易隐含能源决定因素研究

发布时间：2018-03-10 09:37

本文选题：对外贸易　切入点：隐含能源　出处：《浙江工商大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来,随着我国不断成长为经济大国与货物贸易大国,能源供求矛盾日趋突出,能源问题正将严重威胁我国经济安全。已有研究大多从能源结构、能源利用效率与能源产品直接贸易等角度对此予以考察,关于对外贸易隐含能源(Embodied Energy)的研究尚不多见。鉴于此,本文基于隐含能源的概念,通过投入产出分析方法分行业测算我国进出口商品中的隐含能源,并借鉴Grossman和Krueger(1991,1993)开创的对外贸易环境效应研究框架,从进口和出口两个角度构建计量模型对贸易隐含能源的规模因素、结构因素、技术因素和市场因素进行了静态与动态分析。具体而言,本文共分七个部分展开研究。第一章阐述了本文研究背景、研究意义及研究思路。第二章回顾了国内外关于对外贸易隐含能源的相关文献,并做简要的文献述评。第三章探讨了对外贸易隐含能源的理论渊源及其决定因素的作用机理。第四章分析了我国对外贸易与能源利用现状,以及我国出口隐含能源强度变动趋势。第五章运用投入产出分析方法分行业测算我国对外贸易商品的能耗系数,然后在此基础上计算出我国进出口商品中的隐含能源。第六章首先以进出口隐含能源数量为被解释变量,以进出口贸易总额、进出口贸易结构、进出口隐含能源强度和贸易竞争力为解释变量,分别表征规模因素、结构因素、技术因素和市场因素,构建两个静态计量模型,以检验不同因素对贸易隐含能源的决定作用。同时,考虑到贸易隐含能源可能存在路径依赖,从而本文在静态模型的基础上将进出口隐含能源的一期滞后项加入到解释变量中,进一步构建了两个动态计量模型,并予以动态分析。第七章归纳了研究结论,并阐释了相关启示及政策建议。研究结果表明：首先,我国各行业商品完全能耗系数均呈现下降趋势；其次,我国进出口隐含能源在总量上均呈现上升态势,并且,进口和出口隐含能源的数量大体相当；最后,关于对外贸易隐含能源的决定因素,静态实证分析结果显示,决定出口和进口隐含能源的因素更多地体现在规模、结构和技术上,而市场因素的决定作用不明显,但是动态实证分析结果显示,出口隐含能源存在一个微弱的路径依赖效应,而进口则不存在这种效应；此外,对外贸易规模和进出口隐含能源强度对进出口隐含能源的影响都比较显著,并且影响方向与预期基本一致；而贸易结构和贸易竞争力这两个因素则不存在显著影响。结合理论分析和实证分析,笔者提出了几点政策建议：持续推进我国对外贸易转型升级；适度鼓励进口,合理促进贸易平衡；努力优化能源消费结构和对外贸易结构;积极促进技术创新,提高能源利用效率；逐步完善与贸易相关的节能降耗等法律法规以保障我国的能源安全。
[Abstract]:In recent years, as China has grown into an economic power and a large country in goods trade, the contradiction between energy supply and demand has become increasingly prominent, and the energy problem is seriously threatening the economic security of our country. Energy use efficiency and direct trade in energy products are investigated, but there are few studies on the implicit energy sources in foreign trade. In view of this, this paper is based on the concept of implied energy. Through the input-output analysis method, the implied energy sources in China's import and export commodities are calculated by industry, and the framework of research on the environmental effects of foreign trade initiated by Grossman and Krueger's 1991 / 1993) is used for reference. The static and dynamic analysis of the scale factor, structure factor, technology factor and market factor of the trade implied energy is carried out by constructing the econometric model from the point of view of import and export. Specifically, this paper is divided into seven parts. The first chapter describes the research background, research significance and research ideas. The third chapter discusses the theoretical origin of foreign trade implied energy and the mechanism of its determinants. Chapter 4th analyzes the current situation of foreign trade and energy utilization in China. And the trend of implied energy intensity change in China's exports. Chapter 5th uses input-output analysis method to calculate the energy consumption coefficient of China's foreign trade commodities by industry. Based on this, the implied energy in China's import and export commodities is calculated. Chapter 6th takes the quantity of implied energy as the explanatory variable, the total amount of import and export trade, the structure of import and export trade. The implied energy intensity and trade competitiveness of import and export are explanatory variables, representing scale factor, structure factor, technology factor and market factor, respectively. Two static measurement models are constructed. In order to test the determinant effect of different factors on trade implied energy, considering that trade implied energy may have path dependence, this paper adds one phase lag term of import and export implied energy to the explanatory variable based on static model. Further, two dynamic econometric models are constructed and analyzed dynamically. Chapter 7th summarizes the research conclusions, and explains the relevant enlightenment and policy recommendations. The results show that: first, the total energy consumption coefficient of all industries in China is declining; secondly, the total amount of implied energy in China's import and export are all rising, and the quantity of import and export implied energy is about the same; Finally, on the determinants of foreign trade implied energy, the results of static empirical analysis show that the determinants of export and import implied energy are more in scale, structure and technology, but the market factors are not obvious. But the results of dynamic empirical analysis show that there is a weak path dependence effect in export implied energy, but no such effect in import. Both the scale of foreign trade and the implied energy intensity of import and export have significant effects on the implied energy of import and export, and the direction of influence is basically consistent with the expectation. However, the trade structure and trade competitiveness have no significant influence. Based on the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, the author puts forward several policy suggestions: to continuously promote the transformation and upgrading of China's foreign trade; to encourage imports appropriately. We should promote the balance of trade reasonably; optimize the structure of energy consumption and foreign trade; actively promote technological innovation and improve the efficiency of energy use; and gradually improve the laws and regulations related to energy conservation and consumption in order to ensure the energy security of our country.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F752;F426.2

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