我国能源经济效率区域差异实证研究

发布时间：2018-03-10 15:30

本文选题：能源经济效率　切入点：面板模型　出处：《复旦大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在过去的经济发展过程中,我国一直采取粗放式的发展模式,单位产值能耗极高,因此急需提高我国能源经济效率。我国地域广袤,各地的资源禀赋差异很大,造就了较大的地区性差异。本文的目的在于,在考虑各区域的空间特征和效率差异的基础上,创新性地引入聚类分析方法对能源经济效率区域进行划分来表征各区域的空间同质性特征,对我国的能源经济效率进行分析,使得得出的结果更有针对性和现实意义。在理论分析方面,本文通过对能源经济效率定义的分析,认为影响能源经济效率的主要因素包括产业结构、工业结构、技术进步、能源消费结构和能源价格。在实证分析方面,本文以能源经济效率为考察核心,首先将我国30个省(直辖市、自治区)(除西藏外)划分成能源经济效率高、中、低三类区域。通过使用2005——2012年的面板数据建立能源经济效率的长期均衡模型和短期误差修正模型,探究变量因素在长期和短期对各区域能源经济效率的影响,并根据分析结果提出相应的政策以达到提高能源经济效率的目的。本文得出的主要结论有,第一,影响能源经济效率的五个因素中,技术进步只对能源经济效率的长期均衡有影响,其他因素在长期和短期均有影响；第二,产业结构对三类区域的能源经济效率的长期均衡和短期波动均有影响,高能效区域能源经济效率受该因素的影响最大；第三,工业结构和能源消费结构长期和短期对低能效区域的影响都是最大的：第四,能源价格短期只对高能效区域的能源经济效率有波动性影响,长期来看,中能效区域的能源经济效率受该因素的影响最大；第五,能源经济效率的短期波动还受到误差值的影响,低能效区域的误差修正项系数最大,能源经济效率偏离均衡后回到均衡水平的速度是最快的。同时,为考察我国“十二五”节能目标是否能够实现,本文首次使用了VAR模型对我国“十二五”期末单位国内生产总值能耗量进行预测。预测结果表明,到2015年末,我国可以实现单位国内生产总值能耗比2010年下降16%的目标。
[Abstract]:In the past economic development process, our country has been adopting extensive development mode, the unit output value energy consumption is extremely high, therefore urgently needs to improve our country energy economy efficiency. The purpose of this paper is to consider the spatial characteristics and efficiency differences of each region. The cluster analysis method is introduced to divide the energy economic efficiency regions to characterize the spatial homogeneity of each region, and to analyze the energy economic efficiency in China. In the theoretical analysis, through the analysis of the definition of energy economic efficiency, the main factors affecting energy economic efficiency include industrial structure, industrial structure, technological progress. Energy consumption structure and energy price. In the aspect of empirical analysis, this paper regards energy economic efficiency as the core, first divides 30 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions, except Tibet) into high energy economic efficiency. Using panel data from 2005 to 2012 to establish a long-term equilibrium model of energy economic efficiency and a short-term error correction model to explore the impact of variable factors on energy economic efficiency in the long and short term. According to the results of the analysis, the corresponding policies are put forward to achieve the purpose of improving energy economic efficiency. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: first, among the five factors affecting energy economic efficiency, Technological progress only has an impact on the long-term equilibrium of energy economic efficiency, while other factors have an impact on both long-term and short-term effects. Secondly, the industrial structure has an impact on the long-term equilibrium and short-term fluctuations of energy economic efficiency in the three regions. Energy efficiency in energy-efficient regions is most affected by this factor; third, industrial structure and energy consumption structure have the greatest impact on inefficient regions in the long and short term: 4th, Energy prices only have a volatile impact on energy efficiency in energy-efficient regions in the short term, and in the long run, energy economic efficiency in medium-energy efficiency areas is the most affected by this factor; 5th, The short-term fluctuation of energy economic efficiency is also affected by the error value. The error correction coefficient is the largest in the low energy efficiency area, and the speed of energy economic efficiency returning to the equilibrium level after deviating from the equilibrium is the fastest. At the same time, In order to investigate whether the energy saving target of the 12th Five-Year Plan can be achieved, this paper first uses VAR model to forecast the energy consumption per unit GDP at the end of the 12th Five-Year Plan. The forecast results show that, by end of 2015, China can achieve the goal of reducing energy consumption per unit of GDP by 16% compared with 2010.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.2

【参考文献】