汽车制造企业供应链风险预警研究

发布时间：2018-03-15 10:31

本文选题：供应链管理　切入点：风险预警　出处：《哈尔滨商业大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：自2005以来,中国采取了一系列降低进口关税的措施,取消进口汽车配额,汽车下乡补贴,使汽车销量的增长。汽车制造企业当前的发展经历了从传统的散装的制造商独立部件的生产,组装,销售的全过程,为上下游节点开发公司专注于自身核心竞争力的理由,完成一系列的零部件采购,制造,销售,分销活动,汽车供应链网络。汽车制造企业与其他企业,工艺,工艺复杂,技术含量高,对供应链合作伙伴关系,是一个比较复杂的供应链系统,存在的潜在汽车制造企业供应链风险较大。况且汽车制造产业还是一个支撑着我国经济的主力产业,所以对我国的、每一个汽车制造产业都进行必要的风险预警的管理是非常有现实意义的,因为这有助于我国经济的平稳发展。在认真的讨论和研究国内外的各种制造企业相关的供应链对风险研究的现状之后,将关于汽车制造产业的供应链理论作为研讨的依据、从哪里能够产生对于汽车制造企业供应链造成风险的因素,如何对存在于企业供应链当中的风险加以分辨,并且从宏观的角度将汽车制造企业的供应链进行彻底的认识、以及合作关系和企业能力,在这三个方面来对汽车制造企业的供应链进行分析与研究。在以上工作全部完成的前提下构建出一套完整的体系,这个体系当中包含了20个汽车制造企业供应链的风险指标,这个体系混运用一种叫做采用因子分析法的方法来将初始指标逐个分析选择,最后保留4个一级风险预警指标和13个二级预警指标,并将他们组成一个新的预警指标体系。对于每个指标的预警线来说要运用定性与定量相结合的方法将其建立起来。能够成功的建立起来一个目标预警指标体系的前提下在,灵活的利用一种叫做BP神经网络的概念将汽车制造企业供应链模型给建立起来,这种模型会运用到对汽车制造企业供应链风险进行测量的方面研究上去,将上述的测量结果与汽车制造企业供应链风险警度表相融合,通过-系列的算法来把预警结果得出,然后在通过这些预警结果去制定一个方案来解决这些风险问题。在对汽车制造企业供应链风险预警的实际状况进行深入研究而且做过仔细的调查之后,能够证明前文描述过的汽车制造企业供应链风险预警模型对汽车制造企业供应链风险预警指标体系非常的有效果且特别的实用,并且能够提供一个资料用来为想要对汽车制造业供应链风险企业的预防控制的企业用来借鉴。
[Abstract]:Since 2005, China has adopted a series of measures to reduce import tariffs, eliminate quotas on imported cars, and subsidize cars going to the countryside. The current development of automobile manufacturing enterprises has experienced the whole process of producing, assembling and selling independent parts of traditional bulk manufacturers, which is the reason why upstream and downstream development companies focus on their core competitiveness. Complete a series of parts procurement, manufacturing, sales, distribution activities, automotive supply chain network. Automotive manufacturing enterprises and other enterprises, process, process complexity, technology content, supply chain partnership, It is a relatively complex supply chain system, and the potential automobile manufacturing enterprises have greater supply chain risks. Moreover, the automobile manufacturing industry is still a major industry supporting the economy of our country, so to our country, It is of great practical significance for every automobile manufacturing industry to carry out the necessary risk warning management, because it is helpful to the steady development of our economy. After seriously discussing and studying the current situation of supply chain risk research in various manufacturing enterprises at home and abroad, the supply chain theory of automobile manufacturing industry is taken as the basis of the research. From where to produce the risk factors for the automobile manufacturing enterprise supply chain, how to distinguish the risk existing in the enterprise supply chain, and from the macro perspective, the supply chain of the automobile manufacturing enterprise can be thoroughly understood. As well as the cooperation relationship and the enterprise ability, in these three aspects to carry on the analysis and the research to the automobile manufacture enterprise's supply chain. Under the premise that the above work completes completely, constructs a set of complete system, This system contains the risk indicators of supply chain of 20 automobile manufacturing enterprises. This system uses a method called factor analysis method to analyze and select the initial indicators one by one. Finally, the retention of 4 first-level risk early warning indicators and 13 second-level early warning indicators, And they will form a new early warning index system. For each index of the early warning line, the use of qualitative and quantitative methods to establish it, can be successfully built up. Under the premise of a target early warning index system, using a concept called BP neural network flexibly, the supply chain model of automobile manufacturing enterprises is established. This model will be applied to the research on the measurement of supply chain risk of automobile manufacturing enterprises. The above measurement results will be combined with the risk alarm table of supply chain of automobile manufacturing enterprises, and the early warning results will be obtained through the-series algorithm. Then work out a plan to address these risks through these early warning results. After a thorough study of the actual situation of supply chain risk warning in automobile manufacturing enterprises and a careful investigation, It can prove that the supply chain risk early warning model described above is very effective and practical to the supply chain risk early warning index system of automobile manufacturing enterprises. And can provide a data for the automotive supply chain risk enterprises want to use prevention and control for reference.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨商业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.471;F274

【共引文献】