低碳背景下新兴发电技术经济性与风险评价

发布时间：2018-03-21 16:37

本文选题：新兴发电技术　切入点：经济效益　出处：《华北电力大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：我国能源资源与能源需求具有逆向分布的特征,这决定了我国须按照“大规模集中并网-远距离高电压传输”的方式实现对风电等新能源的开发和利用。风电与太阳能发电具有出力不可控、能量密度低、不能大规模储存等基本特征,这使得新能源的开发利用与传统能源有着本质区别。新能源的大规模集中并网将对电力系统的稳定、经济、高效运行带来较为严重的负面影响,这将在较大程度上改变电力系统规划、建设、运营的内涵和作用机理,给传统电力规划、建设、运营实施模式和手段带来问题和挑战。因此,为了尽可能地发挥新兴发电技术的节能减排效益、实现更大范围的能源资源优化配置和提高新能源的利用比例,研究新兴发电技术经济效益、识别我国新兴发电技术发展所面临的风险、建立健全新兴发电技术的发展保障体系具有重要的理论与现实意义。本文首先阐述了新兴发电技术特点及其国外发展现状,并从内外部环境影响因素分析入手,正确认识了影响新兴发电技术(风电技术、太阳能发电技术和生物质能发电技术)发展的诸多因素,为后文的研究奠定了一定的理论基础。其次,利用全寿命周期评价方法界定了各种新兴发电技术的生命周期边界,构建了新兴发电技术经济性评价模型,分析了新兴发电技术在我国的实施效益、制约因素与推广前景；再次,基于新兴发电技术的风险识别,结合新兴发电技术的特点,建立了模糊-灰色聚类三角函数综合评价模型,进而评估了新兴发电技术发展所面临的风险及其影响效果。最后,从政策法规保障、市场机制保障和管理体系保障三方面出发研究了新兴发电技术发展保障体系,其中,市场保障机制包括技术标准认证体系、电价机制等,管理保障体系包括组织保障体系、投融资管理机制、发展风险投资机构等。研究结果表明,大规模新能源并网条件下,新兴发电技术的健康、有序发展需要兼顾其经济效益、有效识别其发展所面临的风险,并建立健全新兴发电技术发展保障体系。
[Abstract]:Energy resources and energy demand in China have the characteristics of reverse distribution. This determines that China should realize the development and utilization of new energy sources such as wind power according to the mode of "large-scale centralized grid-connection and long-distance high-voltage transmission". Wind power and solar power generation have uncontrollable output and low energy density. The development and utilization of new energy is fundamentally different from that of traditional energy. The large-scale centralized and grid-connected new energy will have a serious negative impact on the stability, economy and efficient operation of the power system. This will greatly change the connotation and mechanism of power system planning, construction and operation, and bring problems and challenges to the traditional power planning, construction and operation modes and means. In order to give full play to the energy saving and emission reduction benefits of emerging power generation technology, to realize the optimal allocation of energy resources and increase the proportion of new energy utilization, and to study the economic benefits of emerging power generation technology, It is of great theoretical and practical significance to identify the risks faced by the development of new generation technology in China and to establish and improve the development guarantee system of emerging power generation technology. In this paper, the characteristics of emerging power generation technology and its development status abroad are described, and from the analysis of internal and external environmental factors, the influence of emerging power generation technology (wind power technology, wind power technology) is correctly recognized. Many factors of the development of solar power generation technology and biomass power generation technology have laid a certain theoretical foundation for the later research. Secondly, the life-cycle boundary of various emerging power generation technologies is defined by using the life-cycle evaluation method. The economic evaluation model of emerging power generation technology is constructed, and the implementation benefits, constraints and promotion prospects of emerging generation technology in China are analyzed. Thirdly, based on the risk identification of emerging generation technology, combined with the characteristics of emerging generation technology, A fuzzy grey clustering trigonometric function comprehensive evaluation model is established to evaluate the risks and effects of the development of new generation technology. Three aspects of market mechanism guarantee and management system guarantee are studied. Among them, market security mechanism includes technical standard certification system, electricity price mechanism, and management security system includes organization security system. The research results show that the healthy and orderly development of emerging power generation technology needs to take account of its economic benefits and effectively identify the risks faced by its development under the condition of large-scale new energy grid connection. And establish and improve the new generation technology development support system.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TM61;F426.61

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