电煤供应链风险分析与管控研究

发布时间：2018-03-28 05:39

本文选题：电煤供应链　切入点：风险矩阵法　出处：《华北电力大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：电煤供应链在保证电力供应稳定和促进国家经济发展方面具有十分重要的作用,因此,开展电煤供应链风险分析与管控研究不仅仅有利于维系其自身的安全运营,还是保证电力正常供应和我国经济平稳发展的重要举措。本文以电煤供应链作为研究对象,从风险识别、风险评估和风险防控三个方面对其进行深入探讨。首先,在深入研究供应链风险管理的基础上,界定了电煤供应链系统及其存在的主要问题,对电煤供应链的风险识别与分析问题进行了详细阐述,同时,综合运用电煤供应链风险识别原则与方法,详细分析了电煤供应链中的风险因素。其次,在电煤供应链风险识别的基础上,构建了相应的风险评估指标体系,将AHP法、风险矩阵法和Borda序值法有效结合起来,提出了基于AHP法和风险矩阵法的电煤供应链风险评估方法,同时,在风险因素重要性排序的过程中引入Borda序值法,消除了风险结的不良影响,该方法不仅有效实现了定性与定量相结合的电煤供应链风险评估,而且简单易行。再次,结合电煤供应链风险识别与评估结果,提出了针对性的电煤供应链风险管控措施和风险管控体系构建建议。最后,将本文提出的模型与方法应用于A集团电煤供应链,分析评估其现存的风险因素及其等级,并提出科学有效的防范措施。
[Abstract]:Thermal coal supply chain plays an important role in ensuring the stability of power supply and promoting national economic development. Therefore, it is not only beneficial to maintain its own safe operation but also to carry out risk analysis and management research of power coal supply chain. It is also an important measure to ensure the normal supply of electricity and the steady development of our economy. In this paper, the coal supply chain is taken as the research object, which is discussed from three aspects of risk identification, risk assessment and risk prevention and control. First, on the basis of in-depth study of supply chain risk management, This paper defines the power coal supply chain system and its main problems, expounds the risk identification and analysis of the power coal supply chain in detail, at the same time, synthetically applies the principle and method of the power coal supply chain risk identification. The risk factors in power coal supply chain are analyzed in detail. Secondly, based on the risk identification of power coal supply chain, the corresponding risk evaluation index system is constructed. The AHP method, the risk matrix method and the Borda sequence value method are effectively combined together. Based on AHP method and risk matrix method, the paper puts forward the method of risk assessment in coal supply chain. At the same time, the Borda order value method is introduced in the process of ranking the importance of risk factors, which eliminates the adverse effect of risk knot. This method not only effectively realizes the qualitative and quantitative coal supply chain risk assessment, but also is simple and practical. Thirdly, combined with the power coal supply chain risk identification and evaluation results, Finally, the model and method proposed in this paper are applied to the power coal supply chain of A Group, and the existing risk factors and their grades are analyzed and evaluated. And put forward scientific and effective preventive measures.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F274;F426.61

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