国际石油价格波动的结构性因素分析

发布时间：2018-04-01 23:31

本文选题：价格波动　切入点：结构性因素　出处：《合肥工业大学学报(自然科学版)》2015年03期

【摘要】：文章将石油供给性冲击、需求性冲击和投机行为冲击3方面结构性因素细分为5个内生变量,构建反映油价波动的结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型,并运用模型对1999—2012年期间油价波动的原因进行了实证分析。结果表明:需求性冲击无论是长期还是短期都是油价波动的最主要因素;其次,投机性冲击对油价波动的影响也较大,不容忽视;短期突发事件和供给冲击短期对油价有些影响,长期影响基本消失。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the structural factors of oil supply shock, demand impact and speculative behavior shock are subdivided into five endogenous variables, and a structural vector autoregressive SVARmodel is constructed to reflect oil price fluctuation. The results show that the demand shock is the main factor of oil price fluctuation in the long run and the short term. Secondly, the speculative shock has great influence on the oil price fluctuation, and the model is used to analyze the reason of the oil price fluctuation in 1999-2012, and the results show that the demand shock is the main factor of the oil price fluctuation in the long run or in the short term. It can not be ignored; short-term emergencies and supply shocks have some impact on oil prices, and long-term effects disappear.
【作者单位】：合肥工业大学管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71271074)
【分类号】：F416.22;F764.1

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