XX航空转包项目增速评估过程中的风险识别与评估研究与应用

发布时间：2018-04-21 23:10

本文选题：航空转包项目 + 项目风险管理　；参考：《上海交通大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着社会经济以及科学技术的的高速发展,全球民机市场快速增长,航空转包国际合作项目在项目实施过程中存在风险因素较多,其中生产能力和增速能力的准确评估是转包项目管理的一项重要工作。航空转包项目的项目风险管理的重点之一是项目增速评估风险管理。本文对航空转包项目增速评估风险管理进行了全面风险识别、风险评价及风险应对和研究,重点对航空转包项目增速评估进行了风险评估。结合航空转包项目运营的特点和增速评估项目情况,在简要阐述风险评估理论和方法的基础上,并考虑到航空转包项目增速评估风险中的不确定性、多样性和模糊性,运用层次分析法和模糊理论,提出层次分析-模糊综合评价模型的航空转包项目风险评估方法,对航空转包项目层次分析-模糊综合评价模型风险评估进行了详细的分析,并结合实例验证了层次分析-模糊综合评价模型对航空转包项目增速评估风险管理的适用性。本文通过XX航空转包项目,应用层次分析-模糊综合评价模型对航空转包项目增速评估总风险进行定性定量分析,为风险应对策略提供了比较准确和正确的信息,并通过该模型验证了风险应对措施的有效性。实证表明层次分析-模糊综合评价法对航空转包项目增速评估风险管理具有合理性和有效性,建立一套系统的定性和定量评分标准,提高航空转包项目风险管理能力。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of social economy and science and technology, the global civil aircraft market is growing rapidly, and there are many risk factors in the implementation of international cooperation projects of aviation subcontracting. The accurate evaluation of production capacity and growth capacity is an important task of subcontract project management. The project risk management of aviation subcontract project is one of the key points of project growth assessment risk management. This paper makes a comprehensive risk identification, risk evaluation, risk response and research on the risk management of the aviation subcontracting project growth rate evaluation, and focuses on the risk assessment of the aviation subcontract project growth rate evaluation. Combined with the characteristics of aviation subcontracting project operation and the evaluation of the project growth rate, on the basis of briefly expounding the theory and method of risk assessment, and taking into account the uncertainty, diversity and fuzziness in the risk assessment of the aviation subcontract project growth rate, Based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy theory, the risk assessment method of aviation subcontract project based on AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is put forward, and the risk assessment of aviation subcontract project based on AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is analyzed in detail. An example is given to verify the applicability of the AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model to the risk management of aeronautical subcontracting project growth assessment. In this paper, by using the AHP fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, the total risk of the aviation subcontracting project is evaluated qualitatively and quantitatively, which provides more accurate and correct information for the risk response strategy. The effectiveness of the risk response measures is verified by the model. The empirical results show that the AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is reasonable and effective for the risk management of the aviation subcontracting project growth assessment. A set of systematic qualitative and quantitative scoring standards are established to improve the risk management capability of the aviation subcontracting project.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F416.5

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