中国能源消费与出口贸易关系的实证研究

发布时间：2018-04-22 03:08

本文选题：能源消费 + 出口贸易　；参考：《广东外语外贸大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来，中国经济持续快速的增长，与此同时，能源消费量急剧增加。在外贸领域，中国实行出口导向战略，，出口贸易拉动经济快速增长。但由于出口产品结构不合理，能源利用率低，再加上能源浪费严重，加剧了中国的高能耗和高污染。随着能源供应的日益紧张，能源已经成为制约中国经济增长的瓶颈。降低能耗会不会影响出口贸易？出口贸易的快速发展又会对能源消费有怎样的影响？本文将围绕上述问题展开研究，并且重点研究出口贸易对能源消费的影响。本文在分析能源消费与出口贸易现状的基础上，综合运用面板模型分析方法与因素分解法来分析能源消费与出口贸易的关系。首先，关于中国能源消费与出口贸易现状的描述性统计表示，中国能源消费与出口贸易都存在规模大，增速快的特点。其次，运用面板模型分析方法从全国和地区两个层面对能源消费与出口贸易之间的关系进行了分析。选取能源消费、收入、能源价格和出口贸易四个变量，运用面板单位根检验、面板协整检验、误差修正模型方法，对出口贸易与能源消费之间的关系进行检验。得出初步结论：不管是短期还是长期，能源消费和出口贸易之间存在很强的格兰杰因果关系。再次，运用因素分解法从行业层面测算了出口贸易对能源消费的影响。结果显示，技术效应为负，结构效应和规模效应为正，并且规模效应远远大于结构效应和技术效应之和，所以最终出口贸易对能源消费的净效应为正，说明出口贸易规模的增大是导致能源消费量增长的主要原因。最后，在实证分析的基础上，得出一些启示：一方面，中国出口贸易规模的不断扩大以及经济的不断扩张，对能源消费的需求仍在加大。另一方面，中国目前能源使用效率偏低，必须不断改善能源消费结构，改变原有的能源消费方式，不断从粗放型发展方式转变为集约型发展方式。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has continued to grow rapidly, at the same time, energy consumption has increased sharply. In the field of foreign trade, China implements an export-oriented strategy, which leads to rapid economic growth. However, China's high energy consumption and high pollution are aggravated by the irrational structure of export products, low energy efficiency and serious energy waste. With the increasingly tight energy supply, energy has become a bottleneck restricting China's economic growth. Will lower energy consumption affect export trade? What impact will the rapid development of export trade have on energy consumption? This paper will focus on the above issues, and focus on the impact of export trade on energy consumption. Based on the analysis of the current situation of energy consumption and export trade, this paper analyzes the relationship between energy consumption and export trade by using panel model analysis method and factor decomposition method. First of all, the descriptive statistics on the current situation of China's energy consumption and export trade show that China's energy consumption and export trade have the characteristics of large scale and fast growth. Secondly, the relationship between energy consumption and export trade is analyzed from national and regional levels by using panel model analysis method. Four variables, energy consumption, income, energy price and export trade, are selected to test the relationship between export trade and energy consumption by using panel unit root test, panel cointegration test and error correction model method. The preliminary conclusion is that there is a strong Granger causality between energy consumption and export trade in the short-term and long-term. Thirdly, the influence of export trade on energy consumption is measured by factor decomposition method. The results show that the technological effect is negative, the structural effect and the scale effect are positive, and the scale effect is much larger than the sum of the structural effect and the technological effect, so the net effect of the final export trade on energy consumption is positive. The increase in the scale of export trade is the main reason leading to the growth of energy consumption. Finally, on the basis of empirical analysis, some enlightenments are obtained: on the one hand, with the expansion of China's export trade and economy, the demand for energy consumption is still increasing. On the other hand, the current energy use efficiency in China is on the low side, so we must constantly improve the energy consumption structure, change the original energy consumption mode, and constantly change from extensive development mode to intensive development mode.
【学位授予单位】：广东外语外贸大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.2;F752.62

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