世界生物燃料乙醇的发展对我国玉米价格的影响分析

发布时间：2018-04-28 13:06

本文选题：玉米价格 + 生物燃料乙醇　；参考：《林业经济》2015年04期

【摘要】：文章使用1994~2011年的统计数据,并利用定性与定量方法分析了世界生物燃料乙醇的发展对我国玉米价格波动的影响。结果显示,世界生物燃料乙醇的发展是我国玉米价格上涨的主要原因之一。通过定量分析显示:在短期,当年的世界生物燃料乙醇产量上涨1%,会引起下一年的我国玉米价格上涨0.4746%;从长期来看,世界生物燃料乙醇产量每上涨1%,会使我国玉米价格上涨0.3047%。在此基础上,提出了我国应充分发挥政府的重要作用,控制玉米价格上涨和粮食安全;应继续坚持以非粮原料生产生物燃料乙醇作为发展重点等政策建议。
[Abstract]:Based on the statistical data from 1994 to 2011, the effects of the development of biofuel ethanol in the world on the price fluctuation of corn in China were analyzed by qualitative and quantitative methods. The results show that the development of biofuel ethanol in the world is one of the main reasons for the rise of corn price in China. The quantitative analysis shows that in the short run, the world biofuel ethanol production will rise by 1 percent in the short term, which will cause the price of corn in our country to rise by 0.4746 in the next year; in the long run, every increase in the world biofuel ethanol production will make the price of corn in our country rise by 0.3047. On this basis, it is suggested that China should give full play to the important role of the government, control the increase of corn prices and food security, and continue to insist on the development of non-grain raw materials to produce bio-fuel ethanol as the key policy recommendations.
【作者单位】：北京大学光华管理学院;中关村科技园区海淀园企业博士后科研工作站北大方正集团有限公司分站;北京林业大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金“林木生物质能源发展潜力评价与产业形成机制研究(编号:11CGL060) 中国博士后基金项目“林木生物质能源开发潜力研究——基于林业生态史全视角”(编号:2012M510315)
【分类号】：F323.7;F416.7

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