天津市“十二五”节能和碳减排目标可实现性研究

发布时间：2018-04-30 08:47

本文选题：碳排放强度 + 能源强度　；参考：《天津大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：为实现2020碳减排承诺,中国在“十二五”规划中首次引入碳强度指标,并将国家目标分解到地方。因此,各地区同时存在节能目标(能源强度目标)和碳减排目标(碳强度目标)。各地区碳强度目标与能源强度目标是否保持一致?二者实现的可能性如何?本文以天津市为例,对上述问题进行了探究。基于历年天津市统计数据,从产业结构、能源类别、地区对比等多个维度整体评价和分析了天津市经济社会、能源消费和碳排放的发展现状及趋势,揭示了天津市面临比较严峻的节能和碳减排现实。收集和整理历年天津市能源强度数据,画出能源强度发展轨迹,基于能源强度发展轨迹,采用定性和定量的方法深入分析了能源强度变动背后的原因。通过对能源强度演变过程的分析,把握能源强度的发展趋势,利用曲线拟合和趋势外推的方法预测2015年天津市能源强度,对比“十二五”节能目标下要达到的目标能源强度,判断能源强度目标能否实现。同时对天津市“十二五”节能政策进行量化分析,从政策实现的角度考察能源强度目标能否实现。通过能源强度与碳强度之间关系的探讨,将碳强度分解为能源强度和一次能源碳排放系数,研究天津市“十二五”能源强度目标与碳强度目标的一致性,进而根据能源强度目标的实现情况,判断天津市“十二五”碳强度目标的可实现性。结果表明,能源效率因素对天津市能源强度下降起主导作用,产业结构因素发挥的作用比较小。而在能源效率效应中,第二产业能源效率效应占主导,第三产业能源效率效应次之,第一产业能源效率效应非常小,能源强度的变动主要是受第二、三产业能源强度变动的影响。在保持能源强度发展趋势下,天津市实现能源强度目标的可能性超过95%,同时,在节能政策实现的情况下,天津市完全有能力实现能源强度目标。另外,基于天津市“十二五”规划中一次能源结构优化目标,碳强度目标和能源强度目标是一致的,在能源强度目标实现的情况下,碳强度目标也能够实现。
[Abstract]:In order to achieve 2020 carbon emission reduction commitments, China introduced carbon intensity indicators for the first time in the "12th Five-Year" plan and decomposed national targets to local areas. Therefore, energy conservation targets (energy intensity targets) and carbon emission targets (carbon intensity targets) exist at the same time. Are carbon intensity targets in various regions consistent with energy intensity targets in each region? The two are realized. How is the possibility? This paper takes Tianjin city as an example to explore the above problems. Based on the statistical data of Tianjin City, this paper evaluates and analyzes the current situation and trend of the economic and social, energy consumption and carbon emission in Tianjin city from the industrial structure, energy category and regional comparison, and reveals the severe festival in Tianjin. Can and carbon emission reduction reality. Collect and collate the energy intensity data of Tianjin City, draw the development trajectory of energy intensity, based on the development trajectory of energy intensity, use qualitative and quantitative methods to analyze the reasons behind the change of energy intensity. Through the analysis of the evolution process of energy intensity, the development trend of energy intensity is grasped, and the use of the curve is grasped. The method of line fitting and trend extrapolation is used to predict the energy intensity of Tianjin in 2015, to compare the target energy intensity of the "12th Five-Year" energy saving target and to determine whether the energy intensity target can be realized. At the same time, the energy intensity policy of "12th Five-Year" in Tianjin is quantified and the energy intensity target can be realized from the point of view of the policy reality. Through the discussion of the relationship between energy intensity and carbon intensity, the carbon intensity is decomposed into energy intensity and energy carbon emission factor, and the consistency between the energy intensity target and the carbon intensity target of "12th Five-Year" in Tianjin is studied. According to the realization of energy intensity target, the realization of the "12th Five-Year" carbon intensity target in the city of Tianjin can be realized. The results show that energy efficiency factors play a leading role in energy intensity decline in Tianjin, and the role of industrial structure factors is relatively small. In the effect of energy efficiency, the energy efficiency effect of the second industry is dominant, the energy efficiency of the third industry is the second, the energy efficiency of the first industry is very small, and the change of energy intensity is mainly Under the influence of the energy intensity changes in the second, third industry, the possibility of achieving the energy intensity target in Tianjin is more than 95% in maintaining the energy intensity development trend. At the same time, Tianjin is fully capable of achieving the energy intensity target under the implementation of the energy conservation policy. In addition, the energy structure optimization based on the "12th Five-Year" plan of Tianjin city is based on the energy intensity target. The carbon intensity target and energy intensity target are consistent, and carbon intensity objectives can also be achieved when energy intensity objectives are achieved.

【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：X321;F127;F426.2

【参考文献】