后危机时代国际能源价格走势分析

发布时间：2018-05-01 03:05

本文选题：后危机时代 + 国际能源价格　；参考：《价格理论与实践》2015年08期

【摘要】：2014年以来,国际原油市场不断"熊出没",特别是今年6月下旬以后,原油价格几乎一路走低,大幅跳水,尽数回吐了此前"黄金十年"的牛市涨幅,对国民经济运行产生深刻影响,引起人们对国际原油市场走势的深切关注。据此本文在国际油价波动的背景下,着重对后危机时代国际油价波动态势进行分析,并就当前国际油价大幅下跌的原因进行了探讨。结论表明:世界经济复苏放缓、市场有效需求不足、新能源革命引致替代需求、美元升值趋势显著以及国际游资大量撤离大宗商品领域等等成为当前国际油价下跌的主要原因。
[Abstract]:Since 2014, the international crude oil market has been in constant "bear haunt". Especially since late June this year, crude oil prices have almost all the way down, plummeting, giving back the bull market gains of the previous "golden decade". It has a profound influence on the operation of national economy and has aroused people's deep concern about the trend of international crude oil market. Under the background of international oil price fluctuation, this paper analyzes the trend of international oil price fluctuation in the post-crisis era, and probes into the reasons for the sharp decline of international oil price. The conclusion shows that the world economic recovery is slowing, the market effective demand is insufficient, the new energy revolution leads to the substitution demand, the trend of dollar appreciation is obvious, and the international hot money is leaving the commodity field in large quantities, and so on are the main reasons for the current international oil price to fall.
【作者单位】：首都经济贸易大学经济学院;长沙理工大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：必欧瀚生物技术(合肥)有限公司支持
【分类号】：F416.2;F764.1

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