基于系统动力学的煤层气产业风险研究

发布时间：2018-05-07 10:33

本文选题：煤层气产业风险 + 煤层气抽采量　；参考：《太原理工大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：针对日益严重的能源危机和突出的大气污染问题,加强我国的能源自给能力,降低煤炭在一次能源消耗中的比例是解决困境的根本途径。但是我国“富煤、贫油、少气”的资源禀赋使得加强能源自给和降低煤炭消耗的双重目标难以同时实现。在此背景下积极开发新型能源成为我国经济发展的必由之路,因而包括煤层气在内的非常规能源的开发受到了政府的高度重视。受益于煤层气开采技术的进步和美国煤层气商业化成功经验的启发,我国的煤层气产业也走上了商业开采的道路。然而由于地质条件等多种因素限制,我国煤层气产业发展道路充满曲折,前景并不明朗。在此背景下针对煤层气产业风险进行研究具有现实意义,对政策制定有一定的参考价值。文章梳理了国内外对产业风险研究的相关文献,认为目前的产业风险研究还是偏向于具体和微观,中观范围的风险研究还较为缺乏。因此文章选取系统动力学这一系统性的研究工具作为主要工具,便于以中观的视角剖析行业风险。此外在数据处理过程中为了能快速准确的得到结果,也应用了SPSS这类数据处理软件。文章通过对中国当前煤层气产业的分析,确定系统动力学建模的目标,划分系统边界,辨析要素间反馈属性,并通过对数据的技术处理,辅助建立变量间数量关系,最终通过对模拟结果的检验确定模型的准确性,完成建模。利用建成的模型可以模拟潜在的风险因素对煤层气产业的影响,通过观察煤层气抽采量的变动趋势和极值能形象的看出煤层气产业受影响后的发展轨迹,从而在此基础上提出相应的对策与建议。通过对煤层气产业发展现状的研究和建模过程中的系统分析,文章选取天然气价格,财政补贴水平,技术水平和气权矿权矛盾作为模拟运行的风险因素。将其分别赋予不同的值带入模型,煤层气抽采量曲线会呈现出不同的轨迹。通过分析曲线可以发现以上四种风险因素均会对煤层气产业产生巨大影响,但是影响的机理不同,最终煤层气抽采量的极值和曲线形状也不相同。针对不同的风险影响,文章提出要提高补贴水平,加强技术投入和落实气“随煤走”的政策。如果不能平衡各风险间的关系,整个煤层气产业将会被短板所拖累。
[Abstract]:In view of the increasingly serious energy crisis and the outstanding air pollution problem, strengthening our country's energy self-sufficiency ability and reducing the proportion of coal in the primary energy consumption are the fundamental ways to solve the dilemma. However, the resource endowment of "rich in coal, lean oil and less gas" makes it difficult to achieve simultaneously the dual goals of strengthening energy self-sufficiency and reducing coal consumption. Under this background, active development of new energy sources has become the only way for the economic development of our country. Therefore, the development of unconventional energy sources, including coalbed methane, has been highly valued by the government. Thanks to the progress of coalbed methane mining technology and the successful experience of commercializing coalbed methane in the United States, our country's coalbed methane industry has also embarked on the road of commercial exploitation. However, due to the limitation of geological conditions and other factors, the development of coalbed methane industry in China is full of twists and turns, the prospects are not clear. Under this background, it is of practical significance to study the risk of coal bed methane industry, and has certain reference value for policy making. This article combs the domestic and foreign related literature on the industrial risk research, thinks that the present industrial risk research still inclines to the concrete and the microscopic, the meso scope risk research is still relatively lack. Therefore, the paper chooses system dynamics as a systematic research tool to analyze industry risk from the perspective of meso-view. In addition, in order to get the results quickly and accurately in the process of data processing, the data processing software such as SPSS is also used. Based on the analysis of the current coal bed methane industry in China, the paper determines the target of system dynamics modeling, divides the system boundary, discriminates the feedback attribute among the elements, and establishes the quantitative relationship between variables through the technical processing of the data. Finally, the accuracy of the model is determined by the test of the simulation results, and the modeling is completed. The model can be used to simulate the influence of potential risk factors on coal bed methane industry. By observing the changing trend and extreme value of coal bed methane extraction quantity, we can see the development track of coal bed methane industry after it has been affected. On this basis, the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward. Through the research on the present situation of coal bed methane industry and the systematic analysis of the modeling process, the paper selects the natural gas price, the financial subsidy level, the technical level and the gas right mining right contradiction as the risk factors of the simulation operation. When different values are assigned to the model, the extraction rate curve of coalbed methane will show different trajectories. By analyzing the curve, we can find that the above four risk factors will have a great impact on the coalbed methane industry, but the mechanism of the influence is different, and the extreme value and the shape of the curve of the final coalbed methane extraction amount are also different. In view of different risk influence, this paper puts forward the policy of raising subsidy level, strengthening technical input and carrying out gas "follow coal" policy. If the risk is not balanced, the entire CBM industry will be dragged down by the plate.
【学位授予单位】：太原理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：N941.3;F426.2

【参考文献】