伊拉克萨拉哈丁燃油气电站DCS项目风险管理

发布时间：2018-06-02 13:37

本文选题：风险管理 + DCS　；参考：《上海交通大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：企业通过出口DCS项目取了丰厚的经济效益,但同时也不得不看到此类出口项目存在着非常大的风险。本文根据伊拉克萨拉哈丁2*630MW燃油气电站DCS项目复杂性、不确定性和由此产生的高风险性的特点,利用检查表识别出了以项目环境风险、项目参与者风险、技术风险和项目管理风险为4个主要风险和16个项目子风险。通过对现有DCS项目风险评价方法的优劣势的对比,结合该项目风险特点,建立了涵盖德尔菲法、层次分析法及模糊综合评判法的综合评价模型。用德尔菲法构造一致性判断矩阵,利用层次分析法计算出该项目各层次风险因素的权重,通过多级模糊综合评判法评价该项目的总体风险程度。通过评价,伊拉克萨拉哈丁电站DCS项目的风险水平属于“中等”级别,与实际风险水平相当。通过应对策略的综合利用,有针对性的制定了该项目各种风险的应对措施,强有力的保障了项目的顺利实施。结合了德尔菲法、层次分析法及模糊综合评判法的模型兴利除弊,促进企业向国际DCS市场的良性发展。该模型求解简便,除了适用于国际常规火电的DCS项目的风险管理,还可应用到核电、风电和热电联合循环等新能源领域,拥有很好的应用前景和推广价值。
[Abstract]:The enterprises obtain rich economic benefits through export DCS projects, but at the same time, they have to see that there are very great risks in such export projects. According to the complexity, uncertainty and high risk of Salakhaddin 2*630MW fuel gas power station in Iraq, this paper identifies the environmental risk of the project and the risk of the project participant by using the checklist. Technical risk and project management risk are 4 main risks and 16 project sub-risks. By comparing the advantages and disadvantages of the existing DCS project risk evaluation methods and combining the risk characteristics of the project, a comprehensive evaluation model covering Delphi method, analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is established. The consistency judgment matrix is constructed by Delphi method, and the weight of risk factors at each level of the project is calculated by AHP, and the overall risk degree of the project is evaluated by multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. According to the evaluation, the risk level of the DCS project of Salakhaddin power station in Iraq belongs to the "medium" level, which is equivalent to the actual risk level. Through the comprehensive use of coping strategies, targeted to formulate the various risks of the project measures, strong protection of the smooth implementation of the project. The model of Delphi method, Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation (FCM) is combined to do beneficial things to remove the malpractice and promote the benign development of the enterprise to the international DCS market. The model is easy to solve and can be applied to new energy fields, such as nuclear power, wind power and combined cycle of heat and power, in addition to the risk management of the DCS project of international conventional thermal power. It has a good application prospect and promotion value.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F416.61

【相似文献】