CDM机制对中国风电产业竞争力影响研究

发布时间：2018-06-03 11:34

本文选题：风电 + 清洁能源发展机制(CDM)　；参考：《华北电力大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着全球能源危机加剧、环境问题凸显,世界各国纷纷进行能源战略调整。风电作为清洁、高效的可再生能源,成为我国实施可再生能源战略的支柱性能源,获得了广阔的发展空间与市场前景,伴随着清洁能源发展机制(CDM)在我国风电市场的广泛应用,我国风电产业的发展与CDM有着越来越紧密的联系。文章确立了体现风电产业竞争力的构成要素,即风电成本电价和风电上网发电量。在此基础上构建了发电量预测模型和风电成本经济模型,结合CDM机制的碳减排收入特点,计算分析了风电成本电价的竞争力以及不同因素对风电成本电价的影响,并将风电成本与火电成本进行了对比分析,采用灵敏度分析的方法,测算出了其中对风电成本电价和火电成本电价影响较大的灵敏因素以及各种因素对CDM碳减排收入的灵敏度；在计算传统火电成本电价过程中,计算预测了电煤价格的发展趋势,对未来的火电成本电价也进行了预测,对比研究了未来风电与火电的成本电价竞争力,得出了相关结论。本文以内蒙古风电场及其财务数据为研究样本,根据模型结果分析了我国风电产业相对于火电的竞争力,并运用灵敏度分析原理分析影响我国风电成本电价的因素。对比含碳减排收入和不含碳减排收入时的风电成本电价,分析两种情况下静态投资额、上网发电量、运营维护费用和贷款利率等因素对我国风电成本电价影响的大小。得出了CDM机制是促进我国风电产业发展的重要原因的结论,它与静态投资额、年上网发电量构成影响我国风电成本电价的最主要因素。在各敏感性因素的协同作用下,我国风电成本具备与火电成本竞争的可能性。
[Abstract]:With the intensification of the global energy crisis, the environmental problems have become prominent, and the countries all over the world have adjusted their energy strategy. As a clean and efficient renewable energy, wind power has become a pillar energy for the implementation of the renewable energy strategy in China, and has gained wide development space and market prospects, with the clean energy development mechanism (CDM) in the wind power market in China. With the extensive application of the field, the development of wind power industry in China is more and more closely related to CDM.
This paper establishes the components of the competitiveness of the wind power industry, that is the wind power cost electricity price and the wind power network power generation. On this basis, the power generation forecast model and the wind power cost economy model are constructed. The competitiveness of the wind power cost electricity price is calculated and analyzed according to the characteristics of the carbon emission reduction income of the CDM mechanism, and the different factors on the wind power cost electricity are analyzed. The effect of price is compared with the cost of wind power and thermal power, and the sensitivity analysis method is used to calculate the sensitivity of the wind power cost and thermal power cost, as well as the sensitivity of various factors to the CDM carbon emission reduction. The development trend of electricity coal price, forecast the electricity price of thermal power cost in the future, compare and study the competitiveness of future wind power and thermal power cost electricity price, and draw some conclusions.
Based on the Inner Mongolia wind farm and its financial data, this paper analyzes the competitiveness of China's wind power industry relative to thermal power according to the results of the model, and analyzes the factors that affect the cost price of wind power in China by using the principle of sensitivity analysis. It compares two kinds of feelings compared with the wind power cost price of carbon emission reduction income and non carbon emission reduction income. The influence of static investment, net power generation, operation maintenance cost and loan interest rate on the cost price of wind power in China. The conclusion is that the CDM mechanism is the important reason to promote the development of China's wind power industry. It is the most important factor affecting the cost price of wind power in China with the static investment amount and the annual net power generation amount. Under the synergistic effect of various sensitivity factors, the cost of wind power in China has the possibility of competition with thermal power costs.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F271;F426.61

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