原油管网改造投入产出分析建模方法

发布时间：2018-06-04 05:23

本文选题：管网改造 + 投入产出　；参考：《油气储运》2015年03期

【摘要】：对油气管道(网)改造工程进行评价,是工程项目评价的难点之一。将输油管网改造产生的效益划分为安全效益和经济效益,建立以"管道失效"为顶事件的长输管道失效事故树,通过求解最小割集、基本事件的概率重要度和临界重要度进行多层次模糊综合评价以量化安全效益;将管网改造的经济效益划分为减损产出和增值产出,减损产出考虑人员损失减少、社会损失减少、生态环境损失减少、设备损失减少、维检修等因素,增值产出考虑管网延寿产生的输量增加值。再结合基于风险的评价方法,以及各项国际、国内、行业标准,计算经济效益。建立了原油管网改造投入产出计算模型,结合具体改造工程数据,可对原油管网改造的投入产出进行客观评价。
[Abstract]:The evaluation of oil and gas pipeline (network) reconstruction project is one of the difficulties in engineering project evaluation. The benefits of the transformation of oil pipeline network are divided into safety benefit and economic benefit. The failure accident tree of long distance pipeline with "pipeline failure" as the top event is established, and the minimum cut set is solved. The probability importance and critical importance of basic events are evaluated by multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation in order to quantify the safety benefits, and the economic benefits of pipe network transformation are divided into two categories: the reduced output and the value-added output, and the impairment takes into account the reduction of the loss of personnel. Social losses, ecological environment losses, equipment losses, maintenance and other factors, value-added output takes into account the pipeline network life increase. Combined with the risk-based evaluation method, as well as the international, domestic, industry standards, the calculation of economic benefits. An input-output calculation model for the transformation of crude oil pipeline network is established, and the input-output of the transformation of crude oil pipe network can be evaluated objectively by combining with the engineering data.
【作者单位】：中国石油管道科技研究中心油气管道输送安全国家工程实验室;中国石油管道公司;中油管道投产运行公司;
【分类号】：F426.22;F223

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