SUV行业研究报告

发布时间：2018-06-13 08:54

本文选题：乘用车 + SUV　；参考：《西南财经大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着我国城镇化和工业化进程的加快,我国乘用车市场经历了高速的发展,乘用车销量从2003年的220.5万辆飙升至2013年的1638万辆。但是从2009年以来,我国乘用车销量增速基本处于下滑状态。尽管乘用车保有量还有巨大的增长空间,但是不断下滑的增速令广大投资者担忧。也正是在这样的背景下,本人想看看在乘用车行业能否找到结构性的投资机会。我们知道,汽车整车行业属于重资产行业,其业绩推动的主要因素是销量和单车利润。按照此思路,本文就汽车整车行业中的细分行业SUV进行了深入的分析。本文的行文结构如下：第一章对研究目的、意义、内容和方法进行了大致的介绍。第二章对我国乘用车市场的整体发展状况进行分析,同时通过同美国和韩国成熟的汽车工业相类比得出我国SUV市场未来的发展方向。在此章中,我还将SUV对传统乘用车的替代性进行了分析。第三章主要对我国SUV市场的需求进行了分析。本章主要针对首次购车需求与再次购车需求进行了分析。第四章主要是构建了SUV市场需求模型。在本章通过模型构建和计算机编程实现未来几年SUV市场需求的预测,同时也可以印证SUV市场在未来市场有巨大的发展潜力。第五章主要对我国SUV行业的供给结构、竞争状况和发展方向进行了分析。第六章对SUV行业中的重点公司进行了分析。本章主要是分析了长城汽车在我国SUV行业中的竞争战略和发展前景。第七章对全文的研究结论进行了总结。经过本文分析,SUV在我国乘用车中的市场占有率在2015年到2017年之间会达到25%到30%的区间。因此,本人觉得需求旺盛、毛利率高的SUV行业是一个具有投资价值的行业。经过标的公司的分析,本人觉得长城汽车是SUV行业中值得关注和投资的标的企业。本文的主要研究特点是对比分析贯穿全文和构建需求预测模型。在对SUV的发展空间分析中,本文对比了美国和韩国SUV历史发展轨迹。对我国SUV的需求分析中也借鉴美国SUV的需求来源。在对SUV单车利润分析中,本文进行了不同车型比较。在对我国SUV市场的分布上,本文也将其划分为不同价格区间以进行比较分析。在模型的构建中,我们首先根据历史成熟的乘用车市场需求预测模型搭建SUV的市场需求模型,然后借助matlab等软件优化模型参数,实现SUV市场需求的预测。本文的不足之处在于：由于数据的缺失性和难得性,本文在对我国SUV行业进行分析所用数据的数据还不够丰富。如果能得到权威、丰富的数据,本人对SUV行业的分析将会更加科学准确。
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of urbanization and industrialization in China, the passenger car market in China has experienced a rapid development. The sales volume of passenger cars has soared from 2.205 million in 2003 to 16.38 million in 2013. However, since 2009, the growth rate of passenger car sales in China is basically in a state of decline. Although passenger car ownership still has a lot of room for growth, falling growth has worried investors. It is in this context that I would like to see whether the passenger car industry can find structural investment opportunities. We know that the auto industry is an asset-heavy industry, driven by sales and bicycle profits. According to this train of thought, this article carries on the thorough analysis to the subdivision industry SUV in the automobile entire automobile industry. The structure of this paper is as follows: the first chapter gives a general introduction to the purpose, significance, content and methods of the research. The second chapter analyzes the overall development of China's passenger vehicle market and draws the future development direction of China's SUV market by analogy with the mature automobile industry in the United States and South Korea. In this chapter, I also analyze SUVs as an alternative to traditional passenger cars. The third chapter mainly analyzes the demand of SUV market in our country. This chapter mainly analyzes the demand for the first car purchase and the second car purchase. The fourth chapter is the construction of SUV market demand model. In this chapter, model building and computer programming are used to predict the demand of SUV market in the next few years. At the same time, it can be proved that SUV market has great development potential in the future market. The fifth chapter analyzes the supply structure, competition and development direction of SUV industry in China. Chapter six analyzes the key companies in SUV industry. This chapter mainly analyzes the competition strategy and development prospect of the Great Wall vehicle in SUV industry of our country. Chapter seven summarizes the conclusions of this paper. Based on the analysis of this paper, the market share of SUVs in China will reach 25% to 30% between 2015 and 2017. Therefore, I think demand, high gross profit utility vehicle industry is an investment value industry. After the analysis of the underlying company, I think the Great Wall automobile is worthy of attention and investment in the SUV industry. The main research features of this paper are the comparative analysis and the construction of demand forecasting model. In the analysis of the development space of SUVs, this paper compares the historical development of SUVs in the United States and South Korea. In the analysis of the demand for SUVs in our country, we also draw lessons from the demand sources of American SUVs. In the profit analysis of SUVs, this paper compares different models. In order to compare and analyze the distribution of SUV market in China, this paper divides it into different price ranges. In the construction of the model, we first build the SUV market demand model according to the historical mature passenger vehicle market demand forecasting model, and then optimize the model parameters with the help of matlab and other software to achieve the SUV market demand prediction. The deficiency of this paper lies in: due to the lack of data and rare, the data used in the analysis of SUV industry in our country is not rich enough. If can get authority, rich data, my analysis of SUV industry will be more scientific and accurate.
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.471

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