我国石油动态进口依存度测度研究

发布时间：2018-06-15 13:17

本文选题：对外贸易依存度 + 石油进口依存度　；参考：《哈尔滨工程大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：本文通过对国内外对外贸易依存度的测算方法及石油对外依存度的测算方法的研究,结合当前经济全球化的国际形势,认为目前的石油对外依存度的测算方式不能有效地体现出我国石油对外依赖的具体情况。所以从动态指标的角度,提出石油动态进口依存度的概念,建立石油动态进口依存度的测算模型,并根据专家打分法及熵权法确定模型权重,从主观与客观相结合的角度确保模型的科学性与准确性,并对石油动态进口依存度的测算模型进行实证分析,对我国近十年的石油动态进口依存度进行计算,并进一步对我国与主要石油进口来源国的石油动态进口依存度进行了测算。最后对我国石油进口和石油安全的控制从国家、行业和企业的层面提出建议。实证结果表明,本文建立的石油动态进口依存度的模型具备研究价值,通过应用实际数据对模型进行应用,得到的结果显示,我国石油动态进口依存度数值较高,但综合考虑资源、进口、市场和政治等因素,我国目前的石油动态进口依存度是适应我国目前发展阶段的,并且我国已采取的控制石油进口依存度的措施效果明显。
[Abstract]:In this paper, through the study of the calculation methods of foreign trade dependence at home and abroad and the calculation method of petroleum external dependence, and combined with the current international situation of economic globalization, It is concluded that the current method of calculating the degree of external dependence of petroleum can not effectively reflect the specific situation of our country's external dependence on petroleum. Therefore, from the point of view of dynamic index, the concept of dynamic import dependence of petroleum is put forward, and the calculating model of oil dynamic import dependency is established, and the weight of the model is determined according to the expert scoring method and entropy weight method. In order to ensure the scientific and accuracy of the model from the angle of combining subjective and objective, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the calculation model of oil dynamic import dependence, and calculates the petroleum dynamic import dependence of our country in the past ten years. Furthermore, the dependence of dynamic oil import between China and the major oil import countries is calculated. Finally, some suggestions on the control of China's oil import and oil security are put forward from the aspects of country, industry and enterprise. The empirical results show that the model of oil dynamic import dependence established in this paper has the value of research. By applying the actual data to the model, the result shows that the value of dynamic oil import dependence is high in China. However, considering the factors of resources, import, market and politics, the current dynamic import dependence of petroleum in China is adapted to the present development stage of our country, and the measures taken by our country to control the dependence on oil import have obvious effect.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工程大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.22;F752.61

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