工业行业碳排放与工业产值的关系研究

发布时间：2018-06-15 18:43

本文选题：能源消耗 + 工业碳排放　；参考：《北京林业大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：工业是国民经济的命脉,同时也是能源消耗和碳排放的最重要主体。我国是世界上温室气体排放的第一大国,低碳转型与节能减排对于全世界的低碳转型至关重要。我国必须加快节能减排的步伐,其中的核心就是工业行业的节能减排。研究工业碳排放与工业产值增长的关系,有助于科学考察工业发展进程与能源消费和碳排放之间的关系,了解工业节能减排的进展,推动工业的良好发展,对于促进我国工业行业及相关企业的节能减排工作具有重要的意义。本文以2001-2011年为样本时间序列,首先基于工业化石能源消耗的数据及碳排放量测算的基本等式,测算了我国工业各行业的碳排放量,并分析了我国工业行业碳排放的主要特征。其次文章分别利用现有脱钩理论研究,构建脱钩指数分析模型探讨我国工业产值与工业碳排放的脱钩关系状况；运用灰色关联度方法分析了我国工业各行业碳排放量与工业产值之间的关系；采用ADF单位根、协整和格兰杰因果关系进行检验对工业行业碳排放与工业产值进行协整性与因果关系分析。研究发现：(1)2001-2011年间,工业行业碳排放还处于较快增长阶段,节能减排形势不容乐观；(2)工业产值与工业碳排放整体处于相对脱钩状态,相对脱钩趋势仍将持续,同时脱钩比率存在一定的波动,距离实现完全脱钩还有一定差距；(3)工业各行业产值与碳排放量的变化趋势有较大的趋同性,但是不同行业的趋同度存在差异；(4)工业各行业产值和碳排放之间存在着从产值增长到碳排放增长的单向Granger因果关系。最后,本文结合分析结果,提出了工业行业减少碳排放的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Industry is not only the lifeblood of national economy, but also the most important subject of energy consumption and carbon emission. China is the largest country in greenhouse gas emission in the world. Low carbon transition and energy saving and emission reduction are very important to the world low carbon transition. China must speed up the pace of energy saving and emission reduction, the core of which is the energy saving and emission reduction in industrial industry. The study of the relationship between industrial carbon emissions and the growth of industrial output value will contribute to the scientific investigation of the relationship between industrial development process and energy consumption and carbon emissions, to understand the progress of industrial energy conservation and emission reduction, and to promote the good development of industry. It is of great significance to promote energy saving and emission reduction in industry and related enterprises of our country. Based on the data of industrial fossil energy consumption and the basic equation of carbon emission calculation, this paper calculates the carbon emissions of China's industrial industries, and analyzes the main characteristics of China's industrial industries' carbon emissions. Secondly, using the existing decoupling theory research, the paper constructs a decoupling index analysis model to explore the decoupling relationship between industrial output value and industrial carbon emissions. The relationship between carbon emissions and industrial output value of various industries in China is analyzed by using the method of grey correlation degree, and the unit root of ADF is used to analyze the relationship between carbon emissions and industrial output value. Cointegration and Granger causality are tested to analyze the cointegration and causality between industrial carbon emissions and industrial output value. The study found that from 2001 to 2011, industrial carbon emissions were still in a relatively rapid growth stage, and the situation of energy conservation and emission reduction was not optimistic. 2) Industrial output value and industrial carbon emissions as a whole were in a relatively decoupled state, and the relative decoupling trend would continue. At the same time, there is a certain fluctuation in decoupling ratio, and there is still a certain gap between complete decoupling and complete decoupling. (3) the trend of industrial output value and carbon emission is similar, but the convergence degree of different industries is different. (4) there is a one-way Granger causality between industrial output value and carbon emission from the increase of output value to the increase of carbon emissions. Finally, based on the analysis results, the paper puts forward some policy recommendations for reducing carbon emissions in industrial industries.
【学位授予单位】：北京林业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：X708;F424.1

【参考文献】