劳动力成本上升影响制造业产业结构的理论与实证研究

发布时间：2018-06-17 15:51

本文选题：劳动力成本 + 工资水平　；参考：《湖南大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来，中国依赖丰富而廉价的劳动力资源在国际市场上取得竞争优势，成为“制造业大国”。然而，长期依赖于廉价劳动力不仅影响到劳动生产率的提高，也降低了对科技研发和技术创新的激励作用，导致了对技术和资本要素投入的减少，技术及资本密集型产业发展的相对落后，无法实现从“制造业大国”向“制造业强国”的转变。伴随着我国人口结构转型，低成本劳动力的比较优势迅速消退，工资水平上升对我国制造业产业造成了巨大冲击。劳动力成本变动如何影响制造业产业的发展？劳动力成本上升会导致我国制造业产业受到多大的冲击？我国制造业产业能否在劳动力成本上升的背景下保持竞争优势，顺利实现产业结构转型？本文从理论和实证两个方面对这些问题进行了探讨。本文第一部分首先对我国制造业的劳动力成本变动情况进行了概括，认为我国劳动力成本上升将是长期的必然趋势。文章的第二部分则对劳动力成本影响产业结构的途径进行了理论分析，从低水平工资对产业结构的固化作用，到工资水平提高的动力激励、消费积累和内生推动三方面效应分析了劳动力成本对产业结构升级的影响，并将劳动力成本上升对产业结构的影响概括为：需求拉动机制、成本推动机制和关联机制三个影响机制。为了更好的体现劳动要素对产业结构的影响，本文在第三部分的实证分析中，按照要素密集度将制造业产业划分为劳动力密集型、资本密集型和技术密集型三大类产业，并利用2003-2012年制造业分行业面板数据对工资水平上涨对制造业产业结构的影响进行实证分析。实证结果表明，劳动力成本的上升对三大类产业产生不同的冲击，劳动力成本上升会导致劳动力密集型产业比重的下降，资本密集型产业比重相对提升，而技术密集型产业则无显著变化。而从结构偏离度的结果来看，工资水平的上升减少了劳动力密集型产业存在的隐性失业，人均产出得到明显提升，资本密集型和技术密集型产业结构也得到不同程度优化。最后，在总结全文结论的基础上，，提出在劳动力成本上升的背景下转变经济增长方式，推进制造业结构转型升级的对策建议。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China has become a "manufacturing country" by relying on abundant and cheap labor resources to gain a competitive advantage in the international market. However, the long-term dependence on cheap labour not only affects the improvement of labor productivity, but also reduces the incentives for scientific and technological research and development and technological innovation, resulting in a reduction in investment in technology and capital elements. The development of technology and capital-intensive industries is relatively backward, and the transformation from "manufacturing power" to "manufacturing power" can not be realized. With the transition of population structure in China, the comparative advantage of low cost labor force has disappeared rapidly, and the rising wage level has caused a huge impact on the manufacturing industry of our country. How does the change of labor cost affect the development of manufacturing industry? How hard will the rising labor cost cause the manufacturing industry in China to suffer? Can China's manufacturing industry maintain its competitive advantage under the background of rising labor costs and smoothly realize the transformation of industrial structure? This paper discusses these problems from both theoretical and empirical aspects. In the first part of this paper, the author generalizes the change of labor cost in manufacturing industry of our country, and thinks that the rising of labor cost in our country will be an inevitable trend for a long time. The second part of the article makes a theoretical analysis on the ways that labor cost affects the industrial structure, from the solidification effect of low wage on industrial structure to the dynamic incentive of wage level increase. This paper analyzes the impact of labor cost on industrial structure upgrading in terms of consumption accumulation and endogenous promotion, and summarizes the impact of rising labor cost on industrial structure as follows: demand-driven mechanism. The cost-driven mechanism and the correlation mechanism affect three mechanisms. In order to better reflect the impact of labor factors on the industrial structure, the third part of the empirical analysis, according to the factor intensity of manufacturing industries are divided into labor-intensive, capital-intensive and technology-intensive industries. Using the panel data of manufacturing industry from 2003 to 2012, the paper makes an empirical analysis on the effect of wage level increase on the industrial structure of manufacturing industry. The empirical results show that the rise of labor costs has different impacts on the three categories of industries. The increase of labor costs will lead to a decrease in the proportion of labor-intensive industries, and a relative increase in the proportion of capital-intensive industries. Technology-intensive industries have not changed significantly. From the result of structural deviation, the increase of wage level reduces the hidden unemployment in labor-intensive industries, the per capita output is obviously improved, and the structure of capital-intensive and technology-intensive industries is optimized to varying degrees. Finally, on the basis of summing up the conclusion of the full text, the paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions to change the mode of economic growth and promote the structural transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry under the background of rising labor cost.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F249.2;F424

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