基于LEAP模型的大连市工业能源消费分析研究

发布时间：2018-06-18 04:39

本文选题：LEAP模型 + 工业　；参考：《大连海事大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着经济的发展和城市化水平的不断提高,未来对能源的需求愈加强烈,高耗能、低效率等能源问题已经严重影响城市的可持续发展。大连市作为振兴东北老工业基地的重要城市以及沿海经济发展的前沿地带,工业发展所需能源的消费一直很大,但大连市大部分能源依赖进口,供给缺口给大连市未来的发展带来了巨大的压力。因此,研究并建立适合大连市工业发展的能源需求模型有着很重要的意义。本文首先分析了大连市近年来的能源消费总量和增长情况、分部门和分品种能源消费结构和能源利用效率现状,总结出其发展的趋势、特点及工业能源消费所存在的主要问题,研究结果为大连市工业能源需求模型的建立提供了实际的数据支撑。其次,研究影响工业行业发展的主要因素,应用计量经济学模型分析大连市工业增加值占GDP的比重,得出的结果作为模型的主要参数。在进行上述研究的基础上,本文建立了基于自下而上方法的LEAP模型的能源分析模型,将情景分析方法所设定出的基准情景、结构调整情景、技术进步情景和发展情景与计量经济学所预测的数据综合到LEAP模型中,建立大连市工业能源LEAP模型。以2012年为工业能源LEAP模型的基准期,预测了到2030年的大连市工业产业的能源需求总量,各工业分部门和各能源品种的需求量。模型预测得出的结果表明大连市仍存在工业能耗不断增加,高耗能行业比重较大,产业结构滞后、能源结构不合理等问题。最后,在分析和总结的基础上,从保障能源供应、减少能源消费总量和国际与各级政府政策制度等方面对大连市工业能源消耗提出相应的政策建议。本文以大连市工业为例,所采用的研究方法和建立的能源需求模型对其他城市或国家在不同行业或者整体上的能源需求方面的研究同样具有借鉴意义。
[Abstract]:With the development of economy and the improvement of urbanization level, the demand for energy becomes more and more intense in the future. Energy problems such as high energy consumption and low efficiency have seriously affected the sustainable development of cities. Dalian, as an important city for revitalizing the old industrial base in Northeast China and a frontier area for coastal economic development, has been consuming a large amount of energy for industrial development, but Dalian relies on imports for most of its energy resources. The shortage of supply has brought great pressure to the future development of Dalian City. Therefore, it is of great significance to study and establish energy demand model suitable for Dalian's industrial development. This paper first analyzes the total energy consumption and the growth of Dalian in recent years, the structure of energy consumption and the current situation of energy use efficiency in different sectors and varieties, and summarizes its development trend, characteristics and main problems existing in industrial energy consumption. The results provide practical data support for the establishment of industrial energy demand model in Dalian. Secondly, the main factors affecting the development of industrial industry are studied. The econometric model is used to analyze the proportion of industrial added value to GDP in Dalian, and the results are taken as the main parameters of the model. On the basis of the above research, the energy analysis model based on the bottom-up method of leap model is established in this paper. The benchmark scenario, the structural adjustment scenario, which are developed by the scenario analysis method, are put forward in this paper. The situation of technological progress and development and the data predicted by econometrics are integrated into the leap model and the industrial energy LEAP model of Dalian is established. Taking 2012 as the base period of the industrial energy LEAP model, the total energy demand of the industrial industry in Dalian by 2030, the demand of all industrial subsectors and various kinds of energy are forecasted. The results of the model prediction show that there are still some problems in Dalian, such as the increasing of industrial energy consumption, the large proportion of high-energy consuming industries, the lag of industrial structure, the unreasonable energy structure, and so on. Finally, on the basis of analysis and summary, this paper puts forward corresponding policy suggestions on Dalian industrial energy consumption from the aspects of ensuring energy supply, reducing the total amount of energy consumption and the policies and systems of international and government at all levels. Taking Dalian industry as an example, the research method and the energy demand model established in this paper are also useful for other cities or countries to study energy demand in different industries or as a whole.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F424.1

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