韩国对中国汽车产业FDI的贸易效应研究

发布时间：2018-06-25 20:19

本文选题：FDI + 韩中贸易　；参考：《复旦大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：2013年中国的贸易总额与上年同期相比增加7.6%,创下4.1603万亿美元记录,中国跃上数十年来由美国占据的世界第一贸易大国地位。在过去,中国经济自1992年正式进入改革开放以后,呈现了急速增长。特别是2001年加入WTO后,最近10年间保持了年平均10.7%的增长趋势。结果,中国超越日本,理直气壮地登上了世界第二大经济大国地位。而今天,中国以2013年为基点,在世界贸易中也跃升至第一位。在这样的世界贸易环境下,韩国的对中国贸易逐渐显出了其重要性。韩中建交后,韩国和中国维持着相互补充性的合作关系,在贸易、投资等经济交流领域迅速成长。2011年两国间贸易规模与1992年相比,增加约34.6倍,2004年以后,中国成为了韩国的最大贸易对象国。此外,建交之后,出口和进口各增加50.6倍和23.2倍,中国跃升为最大出口对象国和进口对象国。特别是,韩国的对中国年平均出口增加率为22.9%,与同期对世界年平均出口增加率相比,以2倍以上的速度迅猛增加。在这一中心位居着韩国的汽车产业。一般来说,汽车产业因其对韩国国内生产总值产生的影响和经济性波及效果,被认为是极其重要的产业。以2011年为标准,韩国的汽车产业占据制造业生产的10%,是国民经济比重大的韩国的核心主力产业。另一方面,2000年以后,中国、印度、俄罗斯等新兴国家的汽车市场迅速成长,尤其中国在2001年加入WTO后,内需市场急速膨胀。2012年,中国汽车销量达1,931万台,与上年相比增加4.3%,其销量和生产量均占据世界第一位。最近,为了迎合急速增长的中国汽车需求,全球汽车及配件企业加快对中国的投资进军。以代表韩国汽车产业的现代-起亚为中心,汽车及汽车配件企业为了迅速提高在中国的占有率和生产能力,从各方面进行着努力。中国已经成为韩国汽车产业海外投资的第一大投资对象国。因此,本论文将重点放在汽车产业的对中国直接投资会对对中国进出口产生怎样的影响上。为研究韩国汽车产业的对中国直接投资是会代替并减少出口还是补充并增加出口,是会出现返销效果,还是会出现进口转换效果,针对以汽车产业5个品种的横截面资料和1990-2013年24年时间序列资料为基础组成面板资料,进行了实证分析。本论文的分析结果为,韩国汽车产业的对中国FDI不仅对出口,也对进口产生增加效果,随之,针对韩中贸易,FDI具有促进产业内贸易的效果。所以,为了韩国贸易的持续性扩大和确保世界最大的汽车市场即中国市场,韩国汽车产业的对中国投资进军须持续扩大。
[Abstract]:China's trade volume rose 7.6 percent to a record $4.1603 trillion in 2013, compared with a year earlier, as China leapt to become the world's largest trading power by the United States in decades. In the past, China's economy formally entered the reform and opening up in 1992, showing rapid growth. Especially after joining WTO in 2001, the average annual growth trend of 10.7% has been maintained in the last 10 years. As a result, China overtook Japan as the world's second-largest economic power. Today, China has leapt to first place in world trade on the basis of 2013. In such a world trading environment, South Korea's trade with China gradually showed its importance. Since the establishment of diplomatic ties between South Korea and China, South Korea and China have maintained complementary cooperative relations and have grown rapidly in economic exchanges such as trade and investment. In 2011, the scale of trade between the two countries increased by about 34.6 times compared with 1992, and after 2004, the volume of trade between the two countries increased by about 34.6 times. China has become South Korea's biggest trading target. In addition, since the establishment of diplomatic relations, exports and imports have increased by 50.6 and 23.2 times respectively, while China has leapt to become the largest export target and import target. In particular, South Korea's annual average export growth rate to China is 22.9. compared with the same period's average annual export growth rate to the world, Korea's annual export growth rate is more than twice as fast as that of the same period. It is the center of Korea's auto industry. Generally speaking, automobile industry is considered to be an extremely important industry because of its impact on Korea's gross domestic product (GDP) and its economic ripple effect. By the standards of 2011, South Korea's auto industry accounts for 10 percent of manufacturing production and is the core main industry in South Korea with a large proportion of the national economy. On the other hand, since 2000, China, India, Russia and other emerging countries have witnessed rapid growth in auto markets, especially since China's accession to the WTO in 2001, and the domestic demand market has ballooned. In 2012, China's auto sales reached 19.31 million units. Compared with the previous year, the increase 4.3, its sales and production are ranked first in the world. Global auto and parts companies have recently stepped up investment in China in an effort to cater to rapidly growing demand for Chinese cars. Taking Hyundai-Kia, which represents Korea's automobile industry as the center, automobile and auto parts enterprises are making great efforts in order to rapidly increase their share and production capacity in China. China has become the first investment target country of Korea automobile industry overseas investment. Therefore, this paper focuses on the impact of China's direct investment in automobile industry on China's imports and exports. In order to study whether the Korean automobile industry's direct investment in China will replace and reduce exports or supplement and increase exports, will it have the effect of selling back, or will it produce the effect of import conversion? Based on the cross section data of 5 kinds of automobile industry and the time series data of 24 years from 1990 to 2013, the panel data are analyzed empirically. The results of this paper are as follows: FDI to China not only increases the export but also increases the import of Korean automobile industry, and then FDI can promote intra-industry trade against Korea and China. Therefore, for the sustainable expansion of Korean trade and to ensure the world's largest auto market, namely, the Chinese market, Korean auto industry investment in China must continue to expand.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F416.471;F753.126

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