高新技术制造业上市公司财务预警研究
发布时间：2018-07-27 15:15
【摘要】：随着全球经济一体化进程的加快，高新技术制造业的发展也逐渐步入蓬勃发展，从数量和规模上都得到了增加和扩大，市场给上市公司带来机遇的同时也伴随着不少挑战，很多公司面临着财务风险，尤其是高新技术制造业上市公司，公司数量多，为了适应国家产业升级，需要大量资金开发技术，发生重大财务风险可能性大，一旦产生后果十分严重，不但会造成资金配置失效和精英管理混乱，甚至造成破产倒闭的后果。因此，构建一个有效适用的财务危机预警系统，对高新技术制造业上市公司具有十分重要的现实意义。 本文首先依据样本选择原则确定了包括ST以及非ST公司样本在内的高新技术制造业上市公司财务预警标本。依据财务预警指标的选取原则初步选取了财务预警指标，并确立了以K-S正态性检验、配对样本T检验和Mann-whitney U检验在内的检验体系，，为财务预警模型的建立奠定了基础。通过对财务预警模型的构建过程的研究，确定了KMO测试、因子提取、以及因子得分系数的获得的数据处理过程，同时以上述因子分析所得因子建立了Logistic财务预警模型，并完成了该模型的检验，检验结果良好，证明Logistic模型对此类企业有较好的预警性。并针对论文第3章和第4章研究结果，分析了敏感财务指标所代表的财务能力，据此提出财务危机防范相关建议，最后从财务指标和模型检验效果两方面对文章整体结论进行分析，提出财务预警模型的优缺点，希望对该方面研究提供些参考。
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of the process of global economic integration, the development of high-tech manufacturing industry has gradually stepped into a vigorous development, in terms of quantity and scale has been increased and expanded, the market has brought opportunities to listed companies, but also accompanied by many challenges. Many companies are facing financial risks, especially those listed in the high-tech manufacturing industry, which have a large number of companies. In order to adapt to the upgrading of national industries, a large amount of capital is needed to develop technology, and the possibility of major financial risks is high. Once the consequence is very serious, it will not only lead to the failure of capital allocation and elite management confusion, but also to bankruptcy. Therefore, the construction of an effective and applicable financial crisis warning system has a very important practical significance for high-tech manufacturing listed companies. Firstly, according to the principle of sample selection, the financial early warning specimens of listed high-tech manufacturing companies including St and non-St companies are determined. According to the selection principle of financial early-warning index, the paper preliminarily selects the financial early-warning index, and establishes the test system of K-S normality test, matched sample T test and Mann-whitney U test, which lays a foundation for the establishment of financial early warning model. Through the research on the construction process of the financial early warning model, the data processing process of KMO test, factor extraction and factor score coefficient is determined. At the same time, the Logistic financial early warning model is established by the factors obtained from the above factor analysis. The test results show that the Logistic model has good early warning ability for this kind of enterprises. According to the research results of Chapter 3 and Chapter 4, this paper analyzes the financial ability represented by sensitive financial indicators, and puts forward some suggestions on how to prevent financial crisis. Finally, the paper analyzes the whole conclusion of the article from two aspects of financial index and model test effect, and puts forward the advantages and disadvantages of financial early warning model, hoping to provide some references for the research on this aspect.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F275;F426.4
本文编号：2148234
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of the process of global economic integration, the development of high-tech manufacturing industry has gradually stepped into a vigorous development, in terms of quantity and scale has been increased and expanded, the market has brought opportunities to listed companies, but also accompanied by many challenges. Many companies are facing financial risks, especially those listed in the high-tech manufacturing industry, which have a large number of companies. In order to adapt to the upgrading of national industries, a large amount of capital is needed to develop technology, and the possibility of major financial risks is high. Once the consequence is very serious, it will not only lead to the failure of capital allocation and elite management confusion, but also to bankruptcy. Therefore, the construction of an effective and applicable financial crisis warning system has a very important practical significance for high-tech manufacturing listed companies. Firstly, according to the principle of sample selection, the financial early warning specimens of listed high-tech manufacturing companies including St and non-St companies are determined. According to the selection principle of financial early-warning index, the paper preliminarily selects the financial early-warning index, and establishes the test system of K-S normality test, matched sample T test and Mann-whitney U test, which lays a foundation for the establishment of financial early warning model. Through the research on the construction process of the financial early warning model, the data processing process of KMO test, factor extraction and factor score coefficient is determined. At the same time, the Logistic financial early warning model is established by the factors obtained from the above factor analysis. The test results show that the Logistic model has good early warning ability for this kind of enterprises. According to the research results of Chapter 3 and Chapter 4, this paper analyzes the financial ability represented by sensitive financial indicators, and puts forward some suggestions on how to prevent financial crisis. Finally, the paper analyzes the whole conclusion of the article from two aspects of financial index and model test effect, and puts forward the advantages and disadvantages of financial early warning model, hoping to provide some references for the research on this aspect.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F275;F426.4
【引证文献】
相关期刊论文 前1条
1 赵会茹;蒋慧娟;郭森;;基于ISM和MICMAC模型的电网公司运营预警指标研究[J];陕西电力;2015年03期
本文编号：2148234
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