国际原油价格波动对我国物价的传导效应研究

发布时间：2018-07-27 21:10

【摘要】：随着我国经济全球化进程的加快，外部因素对国内物价水平的影响愈加明显，其中，国际原油价格的影响尤为突出。原油作为一种产业链较长且复杂的重要能源，其价格波动与一国的物价水平高低有着密切关系。我国正处于经济快速发展的阶段，对石油的大量需求主要通过进口来满足，导致我国原油对外依存度持续上升。而我国对进口原油的依赖，使国际原油价格波动对我国物价水平的影响成为日益重要的课题之一。因此，深入研究国际原油价格波动向国内物价水平传导的路径，并从定量角度把握这一传导路径对成品油定价机制的依赖关系，将为决策者制定相关政策提供重要的参考价值。本文首先论述了国际原油价格波动对我国物价水平的价格传导理论和实现途径，并梳理了国内油价形成机制的改革历程。为了验证理论分析中政策性因素的影响，本文利用协整分析方法考察国际原油价格与国内油价之间的长期稳定关系，以及国内油价定价机制的改革对这种稳定关系的影响作用。通过确定理论分析中的传导路径是可行的，本文进一步建立结构向量自回归（SVAR）模型，运用脉冲响应函数和方差分解统计技术对不同传导路径的影响进行了实证对比分析。研究结果表明：国际原油价格与国内原油价格、国际原油价格与国内成品油价格之间均存在稳定的长期关系；成品油定价机制的改革，使国际原油价格波动对我国成品油价格的影响更加显著；自2009年我国新成品油定价机制实施后，国际原油价格的波动可以经由国内成品油价格变动传导至CPI；在不同的传导路径中，，国际原油价格波动对CPI产生的影响程度在统计意义上存在显著性差异，基于油气产品的传导机制比基于有机化工产品的传导机制更加有效。
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of the process of economic globalization in China, the influence of external factors on domestic price level is becoming more and more obvious, among which, the impact of international crude oil price is particularly prominent. Crude oil is an important energy with a long and complex industrial chain. Its price fluctuation is closely related to the price level of a country. Our country is in the stage of rapid economic development, a large amount of oil demand is mainly met by imports, which leads to a continuous increase in the external dependence of crude oil in China. The dependence of our country on imported crude oil makes the impact of international crude oil price fluctuation on China's price level becoming one of the increasingly important topics. Therefore, a deep study on the path of international crude oil price fluctuation to domestic price level conduction, and a quantitative analysis of the dependence of the transmission path on the pricing mechanism of refined oil will provide important reference value for policy makers to formulate relevant policies. This paper first discusses the price conduction theory of international crude oil price fluctuation to China's price level and the way to realize it, and combs the reform course of the formation mechanism of domestic oil price. In order to verify the influence of policy factors in theoretical analysis, this paper uses cointegration analysis method to investigate the long-term stable relationship between international crude oil price and domestic oil price, as well as the influence of the reform of domestic oil price pricing mechanism on this stable relationship. It is feasible to determine the conduction path in the theoretical analysis. In this paper, the structure vector autoregressive (SVAR) model is further established, and the effects of different conduction paths are analyzed by using impulse response function and variance decomposition statistical technique. The results show that there is a stable long-term relationship between the international crude oil price and the domestic crude oil price, the international crude oil price and the domestic refined oil price. The fluctuation of international crude oil price has a more significant impact on the price of refined oil products in China, since the implementation of the pricing mechanism of new refined oil products in China in 2009, the fluctuation of international crude oil price can be transmitted to CPI through the price changes of domestic refined oil products. In different conduction paths, the influence of international crude oil price fluctuation on CPI is statistically significant difference. The conduction mechanism based on oil and gas products is more effective than that based on organic chemical products.
【学位授予单位】：北京工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F416.22;F764.1;F726

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