ST油田勘探开发投入产出规律研究

发布时间：2018-09-01 18:37

【摘要】：本文以系统动力学为分析方法,探讨了石油勘探开发过程中投入产出的规律和关系。首先介绍了系统动力学模型,它以定量分析为主,并解释了其工作原理,即求解过程就是寻找最优方案的过程,再通过对石油勘探开发全过程的动态分析,选取了投入产出过程中的代表性指标,运用Vensim软件绘制了因果与相互关系回路图和系统流图,找出了不确定性因素和投入产出指标之间的相互影响关系和正负因果反馈回路。之后,通过对油田的实地调研和专家咨询,获得了近十年的数据,经过数据的预处理和相关调整后运行出投入产出变量的模拟结果。将所得结果在Excel软件中进行相对误差的计算,绘制出相关的散点图和折线图,能够较为直观的看出模型的模拟情况良好,误差也在允许范围内波动,因此该系统动力学模型能够较好的描述投入产出系统。文章选取石油价格、采收率和每万吨探明石油地质储量需直接投资三项不确定因素进行灵敏度分析,能够分析出不同变量对投入产出指标的敏感性大小。根据结果可总结出投入产出的规律和结论:增加总投资、提高采收率、降低每万吨探明石油地质储量需直接投资,以及降低成本等对策能够最大程度上提高利润,保证合理的投入产出比例,实现企业的战略目标。根据该规律和关系,本文进一步提出了提高油田勘探开发效益的相关对策,从勘探开发力度、资金与技术支持、管理方法和海外市场拓展四个方面提出有效建议,对油田的勘探开发工作提供了理论指导,便于企业在实际操作中科学合理的运用,保证了油田投入产出的稳步发展。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the law and relation of input and output in the process of petroleum exploration and development are discussed by using system dynamics as an analytical method. This paper first introduces the system dynamics model, which is based on quantitative analysis, and explains its working principle, that is, the process of finding the best solution, and then through the dynamic analysis of the whole process of petroleum exploration and development. The representative indexes in the input-output process are selected, and the circuit diagram of causality and interrelation and the system flow diagram are drawn by using Vensim software, and the interaction between the uncertain factors and the input-output index and the positive and negative causal feedback loop are found out. After that, through field investigation and expert consultation, the data of nearly ten years are obtained, and the simulation results of input-output variables are obtained after pretreatment and adjustment of the data. The relative error is calculated in Excel software, and the relative scattered plot and broken line diagram are drawn. It can be seen intuitively that the simulation of the model is in good condition, and the error is fluctuating within the allowable range. Therefore, the system dynamics model can better describe the input-output system. In this paper, the sensitivity analysis of three uncertain factors, oil price, recovery factor and proved petroleum reserves per 10,000 ton, is needed to analyze the sensitivity of different variables to the input-output index. According to the results, the law and conclusion of input-output can be summarized: increasing the total investment, increasing the recovery factor, reducing the direct investment per 10,000 tons of proven petroleum geological reserves and reducing the cost can maximize the profit. To ensure a reasonable proportion of input and output to achieve the strategic objectives of the enterprise. According to the law and relationship, this paper further puts forward the relevant countermeasures to improve the efficiency of oil field exploration and development, and puts forward effective suggestions from four aspects of exploration and development dynamics, fund and technical support, management method and overseas market development. It provides theoretical guidance for the exploration and development of oil fields, facilitates the scientific and reasonable application of enterprises in actual operation, and ensures the steady development of oilfield input and output.
【学位授予单位】：中国石油大学(华东)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.22

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