人民币汇率波动对我国纺织品出口的影响分析

发布时间：2018-10-13 11:22

【摘要】：人民币汇率波动近年来一直都是国内外社会各界关注的焦点，自2005年7月份我国实行人民币汇率改革以来，人民币兑美元的汇率波动幅度较大。持续波动的人民币汇率对中国经济发展的影响是不容忽视的。并由此引发了大量关于人民币汇率波动对我经济影响的相关研究，但研究的内容主要是人民币汇率波动对我国整个经济的影响，例如人民币汇率波动对我国经济结构、进出口贸易、就业水平的影响。而关于人民币汇率波动对某一具体产业影响的研究却比较缺乏。对于世界上纺织品生产和出口大国的我国来说，纺织业一直是我国的传统支柱行业，其大量出口对于我国经济的推动作用是不言而喻的，在出口并创造外汇收入方面尤其具有优势。那么，在人民币汇率波动背景下，我国纺织品出口是否发生了改变？人民币汇率波动对我国纺织品出口的影响与国际经济学的理论相吻合吗？同时，我国纺织品出口企业又该如何应对这些影响？这些问题的解答将有助于深化人民币汇率波动对我国纺织品出口影响的研究与认识。因此，本文将通过分析人民币汇率波动与纺织品出口之间的关系，试图解答以上问题。本文首先分析了人民币汇率波动的现状和趋势,通过人民币汇率波动理论和人民币汇率的走势论述了人民币升值是必然趋势。然后通过出口规模、国际环境、是否存在贸易壁垒等方面对我国纺织品出口的现状做了分析。其次，依据弹性理论中的J曲线效应和ML条件，并剖析了中国纺织业本身的特点和出口特性，将其结合在一起阐述了人民币汇率波动即人民币升值对于中国纺织业出口的影响，即由于存在时滞，会在短期内导致贸易顺差增大，纺织品出口增加，之后对纺织品出口的作用逐渐减小。再次，进行实证分析。选取的变量是纺织品出口额、人民币实际有效汇率、国内生产者物价指数PPI以及出口退税率。本文通过建立VAR模型，并经过Granger因果检验、脉冲响应分析、方差分析等检验了人民币汇率波动对我国纺织品出口的影响。得出的结论与理论分析相一致，即人民币升值会使我国的纺织品出口呈现出先增多后减少的状态。最后，为了提升我国纺织品出口企业的竞争力，本文从微观、宏观、政府及行业协会商会方面提出了相应的政策建议。
[Abstract]:The fluctuation of RMB exchange rate has been the focus of attention at home and abroad in recent years. Since the reform of RMB exchange rate in China in July 2005, RMB exchange rate has fluctuated greatly against US dollar. The impact of the continuously fluctuating RMB exchange rate on China's economic development cannot be ignored. This has led to a large number of relevant studies on the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on China's economy, but the main content of the study is the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on the whole economy of China, such as the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on the economic structure of our country. Import and export trade, the impact of employment levels. However, the research on the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on a specific industry is relatively lacking. For our country, which has a large textile production and export power in the world, the textile industry has always been the traditional pillar industry of our country, and it is self-evident that a large number of its exports promote the economy of our country. It has a particular advantage in exporting and generating foreign exchange earnings. So, under the background of RMB exchange rate fluctuation, has the textile export of our country changed? Is the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on China's textile exports consistent with the theory of international economics? At the same time, how should Chinese textile export enterprises deal with these impacts? The answers to these questions will help deepen the research and understanding of the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on China's textile exports. Therefore, this paper tries to answer the above questions by analyzing the relationship between RMB exchange rate fluctuation and textile exports. This paper first analyzes the current situation and trend of RMB exchange rate fluctuation, and discusses that RMB appreciation is an inevitable trend through the theory of RMB exchange rate fluctuation and the trend of RMB exchange rate. Then through the export scale, the international environment, whether the existence of trade barriers and other aspects of China's textile export status. Secondly, according to the J curve effect and ML condition in elasticity theory, the characteristics and export characteristics of Chinese textile industry are analyzed, and the influence of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on Chinese textile industry export is expounded. Because of the time delay, the trade surplus will increase and the textile export will increase in the short term, and then the effect on the textile export will gradually decrease. Third, the empirical analysis. The selected variables are textile exports, RMB real effective exchange rate, domestic producer price index (PPI) and export rebate rate. In this paper, VAR model, Granger causality test, impulse response analysis and variance analysis are used to test the effect of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on China's textile exports. The conclusion is consistent with the theoretical analysis that the appreciation of RMB will make China's textile exports increase first and then decrease. Finally, in order to improve the competitiveness of Chinese textile export enterprises, this paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations from the micro, macro, government and trade association chamber of commerce.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6;F426.81;F752.62

【相似文献】