中国城市工业结构调整速度及其影响因素分析
发布时间：2018-10-17 18:14
【摘要】：近年来,中国经济增速逐年下滑受到了人们的广泛关注。一个重要的原因是,中国的劳动密集型制造业正面临着严峻的挑战。一方面,2008年金融危机之后,欧美经济疲软导致中国出口市场外需不足。另一方面,随着人口红利的逐渐消失,劳动力成本出现较大程度的上涨,导致劳动密集型制造业向印尼、菲律宾、越南等国家转移。产业结构调整将成为中国经济持续增长的重要途径。本文采用Duranton (2007)构建的产业结构超额调整率指标考察了1999-2008年中国地级市的产业结构调整速度及其决定因素。数据显示,样本期内中国各城市年均的产业结构调整速度快于转型时期的欧美国家。分地区的统计结果表明,中西部地区的产业结构调整速度快于东部地区。进一步地,本文还根据样本期内城市的规模增长水平对城市进行分类,发现低增长型城市的产业结构调整速度快于高增长型城市。回归结果表明,外商直接投资显著地加快了城市的产业结构调整,而国有资本则具有显著的阻碍作用。初始企业平均年龄较高的城市后续的产业结构调整速度较快。本文还考察了城市初始行业特征的影响,发现在中西部城市中初始农林牧渔业人员占比的提高对产业结构调整速度具有正效应,而在东部地区,科技服务业人员占比的提高促进了产业结构调整,说明不同地区的城市在产业结构调整的内在机制上存在差异。
[Abstract]:In recent years, China's economic growth rate has been declining year by people's widespread concern. One important reason is that China's labor-intensive manufacturing industry is facing severe challenges. On the one hand, after the 2008 financial crisis, weak European and American economies led to insufficient external demand in China's export markets. On the other hand, with the gradual disappearance of the demographic dividend, labor costs have increased considerably, leading to the transfer of labor-intensive manufacturing to Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam. The adjustment of industrial structure will become an important way of sustained economic growth in China. Using the index of excess adjustment rate of industrial structure constructed by Duranton (2007), this paper investigates the speed of industrial structure adjustment and its determinants in China's prefecture-level cities from 1999 to 2008. The data show that the average annual industrial structure adjustment speed of Chinese cities in the sample period is faster than that of the European and American countries in the transition period. Regional statistics show that the industrial structure in the central and western regions is adjusting faster than in the eastern region. Furthermore, the paper classifies the cities according to the scale growth level of the cities in the sample period, and finds that the industrial structure adjustment speed of the low-growth cities is faster than that of the high-growth cities. The regression results show that foreign direct investment accelerates the adjustment of the city's industrial structure, while the state-owned capital plays a significant role in hindering it. The industrial structure adjustment speed of the city with the higher average age of the initial enterprise is faster. The paper also investigates the influence of the characteristics of the initial industry in the cities. It is found that the increase of the proportion of the initial agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery workers in the central and western cities has a positive effect on the speed of industrial structure adjustment, but in the eastern region, The increase of the proportion of scientific and technological service personnel promotes the adjustment of industrial structure, which indicates that there are differences in the internal mechanism of industrial structure adjustment in different cities in different regions.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F427
本文编号：2277537
[Abstract]:In recent years, China's economic growth rate has been declining year by people's widespread concern. One important reason is that China's labor-intensive manufacturing industry is facing severe challenges. On the one hand, after the 2008 financial crisis, weak European and American economies led to insufficient external demand in China's export markets. On the other hand, with the gradual disappearance of the demographic dividend, labor costs have increased considerably, leading to the transfer of labor-intensive manufacturing to Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam. The adjustment of industrial structure will become an important way of sustained economic growth in China. Using the index of excess adjustment rate of industrial structure constructed by Duranton (2007), this paper investigates the speed of industrial structure adjustment and its determinants in China's prefecture-level cities from 1999 to 2008. The data show that the average annual industrial structure adjustment speed of Chinese cities in the sample period is faster than that of the European and American countries in the transition period. Regional statistics show that the industrial structure in the central and western regions is adjusting faster than in the eastern region. Furthermore, the paper classifies the cities according to the scale growth level of the cities in the sample period, and finds that the industrial structure adjustment speed of the low-growth cities is faster than that of the high-growth cities. The regression results show that foreign direct investment accelerates the adjustment of the city's industrial structure, while the state-owned capital plays a significant role in hindering it. The industrial structure adjustment speed of the city with the higher average age of the initial enterprise is faster. The paper also investigates the influence of the characteristics of the initial industry in the cities. It is found that the increase of the proportion of the initial agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery workers in the central and western cities has a positive effect on the speed of industrial structure adjustment, but in the eastern region, The increase of the proportion of scientific and technological service personnel promotes the adjustment of industrial structure, which indicates that there are differences in the internal mechanism of industrial structure adjustment in different cities in different regions.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F427
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前2条
1 张维迎,周黎安,顾全林;经济转型中的企业退出机制——关于北京市中关村科技园区的一项经验研究[J];经济研究;2003年10期
2 蒋殿春;张宇;;经济转型与外商直接投资技术溢出效应[J];经济研究;2008年07期
，本文编号：2277537
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