基于模糊综合评价法的海外铀资源开发投资风险评价

发布时间：2018-12-10 08:33

【摘要】：核电是一种清洁的能源，相比于火电，核电具有环保、高效等特点。我们国家应当大力发展核电，来缓解我们国家能源短缺的压力。核电站利用铀燃料来进行发电,但是我国的铀矿储量并不是很丰富，只依赖国内开采的铀资源很难满足核电快速发展的需要。我们面临的问题，就是如何解决铀资源供不应求。通过海外投资铀矿是一种比较好的解决方法。海外寻找铀矿将成为我国核电企业的迫切需要解决的任务，海外铀资源投资风险评价是核电企业投资海外项目前提条件。海外铀资源投资开发项目往往具有投资额大、开发周期长、各种不可预计的因素存在等特征，对投资决策带来不确定的风险。因此对投资开发项目进行风险评价显得尤其重要。设计投资风险调查问卷并向中核集团和中广核集团发放问卷。对调查问卷的数据进行统计分析，通过因子分析方法对海外铀资源开发投资风险变量进行筛选，，并构建海外铀资源开发投资风险评价指标体系。本文引入模糊综合评价法对海外铀资源开发项目投资风险进行风险分析和评价。利用熵权法对海外铀资源投资开发项目投资风险因素进行分析和排序，并对投资开发项目的关键风险变量产生风险的原因进行分析,通过风险分析来了解项目面临的最大风险和最小风险，从而达到规避和控制风险。通过中核集团在非洲国家尼日尔的铀矿投资项目来进行风险分析和评价，来验证和修正我们所建立的评估模型。根据分析评价所得到的结果为海外铀资源投资风险管理提出风险控制对策建议，为投资业主在进行投资决策时提供积极的参考意见。
[Abstract]:Nuclear power is a clean energy, compared with thermal power, nuclear power has the characteristics of environmental protection and high efficiency. Our country should vigorously develop nuclear power to alleviate the pressure of energy shortage in our country. Nuclear power plants use uranium fuel to generate electricity, but the uranium reserves in China are not very rich. It is difficult to meet the needs of rapid development of nuclear power only by relying on domestic uranium resources. The problem we face is how to solve the shortage of uranium resources. It is a good solution to invest uranium ore abroad. Looking for uranium ore overseas will become an urgent task for nuclear power enterprises in China. Risk assessment of overseas uranium resources investment is a prerequisite for nuclear power enterprises to invest in overseas projects. Overseas uranium resources investment and development projects often have the characteristics of large investment, long development period and various unpredictable factors, which bring uncertain risk to investment decision. Therefore, the risk evaluation of investment and development projects is particularly important. Design investment risk questionnaire and distribute the questionnaire to CNPC and CGN. The questionnaire data were statistically analyzed and the risk variables of overseas uranium resources development investment were screened by factor analysis method, and the risk evaluation index system of overseas uranium resources development investment was constructed. In this paper, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is introduced to analyze and evaluate the investment risk of overseas uranium resources development projects. The risk factors of overseas uranium resources investment and development project are analyzed and sorted by entropy weight method, and the causes of the risk caused by the key risk variables of the investment and development project are analyzed. Through risk analysis to understand the maximum and minimum risks faced by the project, so as to avoid and control the risks. The risk analysis and evaluation are carried out through the investment project of China Nuclear Power Group in the African country Niger to verify and revise our evaluation model. According to the results of the analysis and evaluation, the risk control countermeasures for overseas uranium resources investment risk management are put forward, and the positive reference suggestions are provided for investment owners when making investment decisions.
【学位授予单位】：南华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.23;F272.3

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