基于GFI模型的工业能源强度变动因素分解研究

发布时间：2018-12-17 03:18

【摘要】：在前人研究的基础上,核算了2001—2010年天津市34个工业行业的能源强度,利用GFI(Generalized Fisher Index)模型将能源强度的变动分解为技术进步、能源结构和产业结构3个因素。结果表明,从逐年各因素效应的累积值来看,产业结构对天津市能源强度变动的影响最大,其次是能源结构,技术进步的影响较小;在各因素效应值的波动方面,能源结构与技术进步对能源强度变动的影响波动较小,产业结构的影响效应值波动较大。从产业结构的角度来看,天津市2001—2010年重工业产值的增加快于轻工业,二者的差距逐渐加大,这种态势抑制了能源强度的降低;从技术进步的角度来看,由于绿色生产技术的广泛使用,天津市重工业与轻工业的单位产值能源消耗都呈下降趋势。因此,天津市进一步降低能源强度的重点还应该放在产业结构调整方面,发展绿色产业,促进产业升级;同时,不能忽视能源结构和技术进步因素的作用,大力发展绿色能源和新能源,推广清洁生产技术。
[Abstract]:On the basis of previous studies, the energy intensity of 34 industries in Tianjin from 2001 to 2010 was calculated. The variation of energy intensity was decomposed into three factors: technological progress, energy structure and industrial structure by using GFI (Generalized Fisher Index) model. The results show that the industrial structure has the greatest influence on the energy intensity change in Tianjin, followed by the energy structure, and the technological progress has little effect on the energy intensity change from the cumulative value of each factor effect year by year. On the other hand, the energy structure and technological progress have little effect on the change of energy intensity, while the industrial structure has a great effect on the fluctuation of energy intensity. From the point of view of industrial structure, the output value of Tianjin heavy industry increased faster than light industry in 2001-2010, and the gap between the two increased gradually, which restrained the decrease of energy intensity. From the point of view of technological progress, due to the widespread use of green production technology, the energy consumption per unit output value of heavy industry and light industry in Tianjin is decreasing. Therefore, Tianjin should focus on the adjustment of industrial structure, develop green industry and promote industrial upgrading. At the same time, the function of energy structure and technological progress should not be ignored, green energy and new energy should be developed vigorously and cleaner production technology should be popularized.
【作者单位】：天津大学管理与经济学部;
【基金】：天津大学自主创新基金项目(60304002)
【分类号】：F424.1

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