居民用电的需求模型构建及节能效果研究——基于广东省阶梯电价改革的实证分析

发布时间：2019-03-19 19:21

【摘要】：阶梯电价制度作为重要的节能政策手段,在全国范围内的推广实施已经超过两年。论文基于广东省2011-2013年21城市改革前后两年的面板数据,利用计量经济学的方法,构建居民用电的需求模型,对影响居民用电的可能因素:用电价格、家庭收入、人口数量以及地区差异的显著性程度,相关性关系进行了拟合估计,得出如下研究结论及建议:地区变量对用电量的影响不显著,在广东省内珠三角与非珠三角地区设置不同阶梯电价标准的意义不大;价格对居民用电有显著的抑制作用,价格调节能起到节能效果;广东省的阶梯电价标准相当于对原统一电价每度提价0.07元,以2012年为例阶梯电价实施可节能约58亿千瓦时;收入因素、人口因素是导致居民用电增加的重要因素,二者成为居民用电的刚需性因素,其中,收入因素对用电量的影响可分解为收入预算在用电消费支出以及电器使用数量增加两个方面。
[Abstract]:Step price system, as an important energy saving policy means, has been popularized and implemented in the country for more than two years. Based on the panel data before and after the 21 cities reform in Guangdong Province from 2011 to 2013, using econometrics method, the paper constructs the demand model of residents' electricity consumption, and analyzes the possible factors that affect the residents' electricity consumption: electricity price, household income, and so on. The population number and the significance of regional differences are estimated by fitting the relationship. The conclusions and suggestions are as follows: the influence of regional variables on electricity consumption is not significant. It is of little significance to set different ladder price standards in the Pearl River Delta and non-Pearl River Delta areas in Guangdong Province. Price has a significant inhibitory effect on household electricity consumption, price adjustment can play an energy-saving effect, Guangdong Province's step price standard is equivalent to the original unified price per kilowatt-hour price increase of 0.07 yuan, taking 2012 as an example, the implementation of step price can save about 5.8 billion kilowatt-hours of energy; The income factor and the population factor are the important factors leading to the increase of the residents' electricity consumption. The two factors become the demanding factors of the residents' electricity consumption, among which, The influence of income factor on electricity consumption can be divided into two aspects: revenue budget and consumption expenditure of electricity and the increase of electric appliance usage.
【作者单位】：中山职业技术学院经济管理学院;深圳大学中国经济特区研究中心;
【基金】：广东省中山市科技局机制创新项目(20123A334)
【分类号】：F426.61

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