火电企业的煤电一体化战略决策研究

发布时间：2019-03-21 08:05

【摘要】：随着中国经济的持续稳步增长,能源需求不断攀升,作为主要基础能源产品的电力、煤炭行业面临着越来越多的发展问题。作为同一产业链上的上下游行业,煤炭行业与电力行业是唇齿相依的,而其生产经营的冰火两重天,使得煤电产业链的发展出现不协调特征。当煤炭的市场价格处于高位,煤炭企业利润率高,盲目性扩大投资,而发电企业则呈现“发电越多,亏损越多”的行业性亏损,投资热情受限,加深了电力短缺；反之,当煤炭价格下滑,煤炭企业的利润回报率低,投资热情下降,尽管发电企业利润水平上涨,但是煤炭供应的保障能力下降,其发展也受到限制。因此本课题从发电企业的视角,通过煤炭、电力企业的纵向一体战略,来探索解决煤电之争,促进能源产业链的协调发展。层次分析法是对定性问题进行量化分析的一种简便灵活实用的多准则决策方法。本文以科学的、系统的、发展的观点提出了以SWOT为基础的发电企业进行煤电一体化战略中的内外部因素综合评价问题,对其煤电一体化战略决策具有现实意义。本文较深入地研究了煤电一体化战略决策中的几个重要方面,内容包括：深入分析了发电企业面临的外部机遇因素、挑战因素,内部发展的优势因素与劣势因素；构建层次分析模型,进行综合评价；根据评价结果进行系统决策等。首先,在深入分析了中国当前煤电产业链的发展现状及煤电之争的深层原因基础上,从企业、政府和市场角度论证了煤电企业纵向一体化的必要性,初步奠定了我国煤电企业一体化战略的理论及现实基础。其次,在层次分析模型基础上,构建了该战略评价的三级层次分析模型,目标层为决策结果,准则层则分机遇、挑战、优势及劣势四个方面,指标层为各影响因素；在对有关专家进行调查咨询的基础上,根据专家打分结果得出综合评估结论。再次,构建战略四边形,得到其战略向量,并利用战略方位角、战略强度系数来识别和判断发电企业的煤电一体化战略类型和战略强度,进而提出相应的战略支撑策略。最后,以河曲发电厂三期建设的纵向一体化战略投资决策为例,运用基于AHP的SWOT决策模型,进行了实证研究,并得出了相应的战略支撑策略。
[Abstract]:With the continuous and steady growth of China's economy and the rising demand for energy, the coal industry is facing more and more development problems as the main basic energy products. As the upstream and downstream industries in the same industry chain, coal industry and electric power industry depend on each other, and their production and operation of ice-fire double days, making the development of coal and electricity industry chain appear uncoordinated characteristics. When the market price of coal is high, the profit margin of coal enterprise is high, the investment is expanded blindly, while the power generation enterprise shows the industry loss of "more power generation, more loss", and the investment enthusiasm is limited, which deepens the shortage of electric power. On the contrary, when the coal price falls, the profit return rate of coal enterprises is low, the investment enthusiasm drops, although the profit level of power generation enterprises increases, but the guarantee ability of coal supply decreases, its development is also restricted. Therefore, from the perspective of power generation enterprises, through the vertical integration strategy of coal and electric power enterprises, this paper explores the solution of coal-electricity dispute and promotes the coordinated development of energy industry chain. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is a simple, flexible and practical multi-criteria decision-making method for quantitative analysis of qualitative problems. Based on the viewpoint of science, system and development, this paper puts forward the comprehensive evaluation of internal and external factors in coal-electricity integration strategy for power generation enterprises based on SWOT, which is of practical significance to its strategic decision-making of coal-electricity integration. In this paper, several important aspects in strategic decision-making of coal-electricity integration are studied in depth, including: the external opportunity factor, challenge factor, advantage and disadvantage factor of internal development; Construct the analytic hierarchy process model, carry on the comprehensive evaluation, according to the evaluation result to carry on the system decision-making and so on. Firstly, on the basis of in-depth analysis of the current development status of coal power industry chain in China and the deep causes of coal-electricity dispute, the necessity of vertical integration of coal-electricity enterprises is demonstrated from the perspective of enterprise, government and market. Initially laid the theoretical and practical basis for the integration strategy of coal and electricity enterprises in our country. Secondly, based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) model, the three-level AHP model of the strategic evaluation is constructed. The target layer is the decision-making result, and the criterion layer is divided into four aspects: opportunity, challenge, advantage and disadvantage, and the index layer is the influencing factor. On the basis of the investigation and consultation of relevant experts, the conclusion of comprehensive assessment is drawn according to the result of expert scoring. Thirdly, the strategic quadrilateral is constructed, its strategic vector is obtained, and the strategic azimuth and the strategic intensity coefficient are used to identify and judge the strategic type and intensity of coal-electricity integration in power generation enterprises, and then the corresponding strategic supporting strategies are put forward. Finally, taking the vertical integration strategic investment decision-making of the third phase construction of Hequ Power Plant as an example, using the SWOT decision-making model based on AHP, the empirical research is carried out, and the corresponding strategic support strategies are obtained.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F272;F426.61

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