我国煤炭价格形成机制及其实证研究
发布时间：2019-03-27 07:13
【摘要】：本文从供给、需求、运输、库存、国际替代能源等角度出发梳理了国内煤炭价格的形成机制,并且提出了区域性煤炭市场及其价格机制的存在,并运用VAR模型对上述因素对于消费地、中转地、产地煤炭价格的影响分别进行了脉冲响应和方差分解分析并进行比较。通过对各影响因素对秦皇岛煤炭价格冲击的的实证结果表明：(1)经济增长带动的需求因素对国内煤炭价格波动的贡献率是绝对的,中长期稳定在59%的贡献率；同时煤炭生产成本、煤炭产量、国际煤价、厂商库存对煤价的影响较为次要,分别在短中长期内达到了6%-7%的煤价波动贡献,而煤炭海运价格和电厂煤炭库存的影响则较小,一直在2%以下。同时实证结果也验证了区域性煤炭市场的存在：1)在供给和需求端对煤价的冲击和贡献率上,秦皇岛煤炭价格(中转地)广州港(消费地)大同煤价(产地)；2)国际煤价的冲击与贡献率上,秦皇岛、广州港大同；3)煤炭开采成本的冲击：大同秦皇岛、广州；4)电厂库存的冲击：短期内秦皇岛广州最后,本文结合实证的结果对我国煤炭行业运行提出了一些政策建议,把包括加大资源税和环境税的征收力度、采取合适的需求端措施来调整国内能源结构、企业应加大走出去步伐及提升内部经营管理效益。
[Abstract]:This paper combs the formation mechanism of domestic coal price from the angles of supply, demand, transportation, inventory and international alternative energy, and puts forward the existence of regional coal market and its price mechanism. VAR model is used to analyze the impulse response and variance decomposition of the influence of the above factors on the price of coal in consumer, transit and producing areas, and the results are compared with each other. The empirical results of the impact of various factors on Qinhuangdao coal price show that: (1) the contribution rate of demand factors driven by economic growth to domestic coal price fluctuation is absolute, and the contribution rate is stable at 59% in the medium and long term; At the same time, coal production costs, coal production, international coal prices, and manufacturers' inventories have a minor impact on coal prices, and they have contributed 6% to 7% of coal price fluctuations in the short and medium term, respectively. And coal seaborne price and power plant coal inventory impact is relatively small, has been less than 2%. At the same time, the empirical results also verify the existence of regional coal market: 1) in terms of the impact and contribution rate of the supply and demand end to coal price, Qinhuangdao coal price (transit place) Guangzhou Port (consumption place) Datong coal price (origin); 2) the impact and contribution rate of international coal prices, Qinhuangdao, Guangzhou Port Datong, 3) the impact of coal mining costs: Datong Qinhuangdao, Guangzhou; 4) impact of power plant inventory: in the short term, Qinhuangdao Guangzhou finally, combined with the empirical results, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions for the operation of China's coal industry, including increasing the collection of resource tax and environmental tax. Taking appropriate demand-side measures to adjust the domestic energy structure, enterprises should step up the pace of going out and improve the efficiency of internal operation and management.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.21
本文编号：2447977
[Abstract]:This paper combs the formation mechanism of domestic coal price from the angles of supply, demand, transportation, inventory and international alternative energy, and puts forward the existence of regional coal market and its price mechanism. VAR model is used to analyze the impulse response and variance decomposition of the influence of the above factors on the price of coal in consumer, transit and producing areas, and the results are compared with each other. The empirical results of the impact of various factors on Qinhuangdao coal price show that: (1) the contribution rate of demand factors driven by economic growth to domestic coal price fluctuation is absolute, and the contribution rate is stable at 59% in the medium and long term; At the same time, coal production costs, coal production, international coal prices, and manufacturers' inventories have a minor impact on coal prices, and they have contributed 6% to 7% of coal price fluctuations in the short and medium term, respectively. And coal seaborne price and power plant coal inventory impact is relatively small, has been less than 2%. At the same time, the empirical results also verify the existence of regional coal market: 1) in terms of the impact and contribution rate of the supply and demand end to coal price, Qinhuangdao coal price (transit place) Guangzhou Port (consumption place) Datong coal price (origin); 2) the impact and contribution rate of international coal prices, Qinhuangdao, Guangzhou Port Datong, 3) the impact of coal mining costs: Datong Qinhuangdao, Guangzhou; 4) impact of power plant inventory: in the short term, Qinhuangdao Guangzhou finally, combined with the empirical results, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions for the operation of China's coal industry, including increasing the collection of resource tax and environmental tax. Taking appropriate demand-side measures to adjust the domestic energy structure, enterprises should step up the pace of going out and improve the efficiency of internal operation and management.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.21
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前2条
1 张克慧;牟博佼;;港口动力煤价格模型[J];工矿自动化;2013年07期
2 连悄;;我国煤炭价格与原油价格关系的协整研究[J];经济与社会发展;2011年09期
，本文编号：2447977
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