九安医疗与新华医疗投资价值对比分析

发布时间：2019-04-19 23:33

【摘要】：2013年的A股市场,可谓是冰火两重天,反映中国宏观经济形势的蓝筹股没有起色,上交所的成交量屡低于深交所已成常态,大盘股的市盈率、银行股破净为上交所成交清淡提供注脚。虽然上证综指全年回落6.75%,但有接近70%的上市公司市值却出现增长,有72%的行业上市公司市值实现增长,呈现出明显的结构性牛市特征,这些行业分别是高科技、互联网、文化、消费、医药、环保等。在这样的背景下,作为一名个人投资者,我们应该如何选择投资标的,如何判断上市公司股票的投资价值呢?遵循自上而下的选股策略,秉承价值投资理念,本文选取了医疗器械板块的二家上市公司——九安医疗和新华医疗,收集了公司2008—2012年财务及经营数据,运用公司自由现金流量折现模型和市盈率模型,对二家公司的股价进行估值,力图为投资者的投资决策提供客观、科学、合理的依据。本文共分为六章,第一章提出论文的研究背景、研究的主要问题和意义。第二章介绍了我国医疗器械行业的发展现状和趋势,以及发展中存在的主要问题,以期投资者对医疗器械行业的整体状况有一个基本的了解。第三章是对上市公司的商业模式、核心竞争力和市场前景分析。第四章进行历史财务数据分析,并对主要经营财务数据进行预测,全面认识九安医疗和新华医疗。第五章分别采用自由现金流折现法和市盈率法对二家公司进行估值,估算出二家公司的合理价格区间,预测结果及给出启示。第六章归纳研究的主要结论,包括行业分析结论、企业分析结论和估值结论,并根据估值结果给出对二家公司的投资建议。本文经过分析,认为九安医疗的股价脱离公司实际的财务业绩,股价泡沫严重,而新华医疗的成长性和业绩都稳定可期,公司目前股价被低估,建议买入并持有。同时作者提出几点投资建议：①在当前的宏观经济背景下,我们推荐自上而下的选股策略,首先挑选出增长明确、空间广阔的行业。②选定行业之后,再去行业中挑选业绩兑现确定,未来成长可期的优质个股。
[Abstract]:In 2013, the A-share market was a double day of ice and fire, and blue-chip stocks reflecting China's macro-economic situation did not improve. Trading volume on the Shanghai Stock Exchange was repeatedly lower than that of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, and the price-to-earnings ratio of large-cap stocks became the norm. Bank shares break net for the Shanghai Stock Exchange light transactions to provide a footnote. Although the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 6.75% in the whole year, the market capitalization of nearly 70% of listed companies has increased, and 72% of listed companies in the industry have achieved market capitalization growth, showing obvious structural bull market characteristics. These industries are respectively high-tech. Internet, culture, consumption, medicine, environmental protection, etc. In this context, as an individual investor, how should we choose the investment target, how to judge the investment value of the stock of listed companies? Following the top-down stock selection strategy and adhering to the concept of value investment, this paper selects two listed companies in the medical device sector-Jiuan Medical and Xinhua Medical, and collects the financial and business data of the company from 2008 to 2012. In order to provide objective, scientific and reasonable basis for investors' investment decision, the free cash flow discount model and the price-earnings ratio model are used to estimate the share price of the two companies in order to provide an objective, scientific and reasonable basis for the investors' investment decision-making. This paper is divided into six chapters, the first chapter puts forward the research background, the main problems and significance of the study. The second chapter introduces the current situation and trend of the development of medical device industry in China, and the main problems existing in the development, so as to provide investors with a basic understanding of the overall situation of the medical device industry. The third chapter is the business model of listed companies, core competitiveness and market prospects analysis. The fourth chapter carries on the historical financial data analysis, and carries on the forecast to the main management financial data, the comprehensive understanding nine an medical treatment and the Xinhua medical treatment. In the fifth chapter, the free cash flow discounted method and the price-earnings method are used to estimate the reasonable price range of the two companies, and the forecast results and the enlightenment are given. Chapter 6 summarizes the main conclusions of the study, including industry analysis conclusions, enterprise analysis conclusions and valuation conclusions, and based on the valuation results, gives the investment recommendations for the two companies. Through the analysis, the author thinks that the stock price of Jiuan Medical is divorced from the actual financial performance of the company, the stock price bubble is serious, and the growth and performance of Xinhua Medical are stable and predictable, the stock price of the company is undervalued at present, so it is suggested to buy and hold the stock price. At the same time, the author puts forward some investment suggestions: (1) under the current macroeconomic background, we recommend a top-down strategy of stock selection. Firstly, we select the industries with clear growth and broad space. (2) after selecting the industries, we recommend the strategy of stock selection from the top to the bottom. Then go to the industry to select performance cashed to determine, the future growth of high-quality stocks.
【学位授予单位】：厦门大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F275;F426.4

【共引文献】