福建省制造业分行业碳排放差异及影响因素分析

发布时间：2019-05-08 11:43

【摘要】：碳排放作为影响全球气候变暖的重要因素,受到各个国家的高度关注。中国作为国际上碳排放总量较大且碳排放增速较快的国家,自愿承担碳减排的责任,并承诺在2020年单位GDP二氧化碳下降40%—50%。福建省作为经济发展的前沿试点有义务分担国家碳减排的重任。本文主要研究福建省制造业分行业的碳排放差异和影响因素。本文将制造业分成劳动密集型、资本密集型和技术密集型三大类,然后从时间和空间两个维度对比分析了三大类制造业的碳排放。研究发现,从1999—2011年三大行业及其内部子行业的碳排放总量逐年增加,碳排放强度逐年下降。碳排放总量由大至小依次是资本密集型制造业、劳动密集型制造业和技术密集型制造业。碳排放强度上,资本密集型行业最大,劳动密集型和资本密集型行业较小,二者的先后排序分阶段而论。子行业角度,资本密集型制造业中的碳排放量和碳排放强度较大的行业是黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业和非金属矿物制品业；劳动密集型行业中的碳排放大户是纺织业和造纸及纸制品业,同时纺织业的碳排放强度要低于造纸业及纸制品业；在技术密集型行业中化学原料及化学品制造业的二氧化碳排放量和碳排放强度最大。空间分布上,本文利用产业基尼系数和CR指数先得出三大类制造业的空间分布,再结合三大类内部子行业的碳排放大小得出三者碳排放的空间分布。结果显示劳动密集型制造业的碳排放主要集中在泉州和福州：资本密集型制造业行业碳排放较大的区域是泉州、三明和福州：技术密集型制造业所产生的碳排放在九地市都较少,三明地区略高。在制造业分行业碳排放现状分析的基础上,本文在Kaya等式的基础上利用LMDI因素分解法,分析了经济增长、能源结构、能源强度和产业结构四个因素对福建省制造业整体和三大分行业的碳排放的影响。结果表明无论是制造业整体还是分行业,经济增长都对碳排放的变化起到促进作用,能源强度对碳排放起到了抑制作用,而产业结构和能源结构这两个因素在不同阶段表现出不同的效应。文章还将三大类制造业的四个影响因素效应进行了横向对比分析。最后,文章结合前文的分析提出了从行业、区域及宏观调控等方面减少福建省制造业碳排放的若干政策建议。认为整体上应该推动制造业产业结构升级,加大科技投入,优化能源结构；分行业减排,关注重点子行业；根据分行业碳排放的区域特点,分区域治理；加强宏观调控和法治建设为碳减排提供坚实的保障。
[Abstract]:Carbon emissions, as an important factor affecting global warming, are highly concerned by various countries. China, a country with large global carbon emissions and fast-growing carbon emissions, volunteered to reduce carbon emissions and pledged to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 40 percent per unit of GDP by 2020 by 50 percent. As the frontier pilot of economic development, Fujian Province has the obligation to share the responsibility of national carbon emission reduction. This paper mainly studies the differences and influencing factors of carbon emissions in manufacturing industries in Fujian Province. In this paper, the manufacturing industry is divided into labor-intensive, capital-intensive and technology-intensive categories, and then the carbon emissions of the three types of manufacturing industry are compared and analyzed from the two dimensions of time and space. The results show that from 1999 to 2011, the total carbon emissions of the three industries and their internal sub-industries increase year by year, while the intensity of carbon emissions decreases year by year. Total carbon emissions from large to small are capital-intensive manufacturing, labor-intensive manufacturing and technology-intensive manufacturing. In terms of carbon emission intensity, capital-intensive industry is the largest, labor-intensive industry and capital-intensive industry are smaller, and the sequence of the two industries is divided into stages. From the perspective of sub-industry, the industries with higher carbon emission and intensity in capital-intensive manufacturing are ferrous metal smelting and calendering industry and non-metallic mineral products industry; The major carbon emitters in labor-intensive industries are the textile industry and the paper and paper industry, and the carbon emission intensity of the textile industry is lower than that of the paper industry and the paper industry, while the carbon emission intensity of the textile industry is lower than that of the paper industry. Among the technology-intensive industries, chemical raw materials and chemicals manufacturing have the highest carbon dioxide emissions and carbon emission intensity. In terms of spatial distribution, the spatial distribution of three types of manufacturing industries is first obtained by using the industrial Gini coefficient and CR index, and then the spatial distribution of the three types of carbon emissions is obtained by combining the carbon emissions of the three categories of internal sub-industries. The results show that the carbon emissions of labor-intensive manufacturing industries are mainly concentrated in Quanzhou and Fuzhou: Quanzhou is the region with higher carbon emissions in capital-intensive manufacturing industries. Sanming and Fuzhou: carbon emissions from technology-intensive manufacturing are low in nine cities and slightly higher in Sanming. Based on the analysis of the current situation of carbon emissions in manufacturing industries, this paper analyzes the economic growth and energy structure by using LMDI factor decomposition method on the basis of Kaya equation. The effects of energy intensity and industrial structure on the carbon emissions of Fujian manufacturing industry as a whole and three sub-industries. The results show that economic growth promotes the change of carbon emissions both in the manufacturing industry as a whole and in sub-sectors, and the energy intensity plays an important role in restraining the carbon emissions. The two factors, industrial structure and energy structure, show different effects at different stages. The paper also makes a horizontal comparative analysis of the effects of the four factors of the three kinds of manufacturing industry. Finally, based on the above analysis, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions to reduce the carbon emissions of manufacturing industry in Fujian Province from the aspects of industry, regional and macro-control. On the whole, we should promote the upgrading of the manufacturing industry structure, increase the investment in science and technology, optimize the energy structure, reduce emissions in different industries, pay attention to the important sub-industries, according to the regional characteristics of carbon emissions in the sub-industries, sub-regional governance; Strengthening macro-control and the rule of law provide a solid guarantee for carbon emissions reduction.
【学位授予单位】：福州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F427;X322

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