温度驱动、经济增长与居民生活能源消费

发布时间：2019-06-20 19:03

【摘要】：在1阶段Becker-Grossman模型的基础上,引入日平均降雨量、人均总产出和地域虚拟变量,分析水旱灾害、温度、经济增长和地域差别因素对我国居民能源消费的影响。采用2004年~2011年30个省域数据建立面板模型,研究发现:(1)各省居民基础生活能源消费存在的明显的个体差异,欠发达地区和高海拔地区的生活能源消费基数较高;(2)我国居民能源消费形式已不同于上世纪90年代之前的灾害驱动型,而达到了与发达国家相似的温度驱动型时期,能源消费量与温度关系曲线呈U型,且温度调节的成本差异导致曲线左右不对称;(3)经济增长效应大于温度驱动效应,是近年来我国居民生活能源增加的主要原因,收入能源消费弹性系数仅为0.39,未来能源消费还会进一步增加。最后本文对模型进行了6种形式的扩展,发现模型具有良好的稳健性。
[Abstract]:Based on the one-stage Becker-Grossman model, the effects of flood and drought disasters, temperature, economic growth and regional differences on energy consumption in China are analyzed by introducing daily average rainfall, total output per capita and regional virtual variables. Based on the data of 30 provinces from 2004 to 2011, the panel model is established. The results show that: (1) there are obvious individual differences in basic living energy consumption of residents in each province, and the consumption base of domestic energy in underdeveloped areas and high altitude areas is higher; (2) the energy consumption pattern of Chinese residents is different from the disaster-driven type before the 1990s, and has reached a temperature-driven period similar to that of developed countries. The relationship curve between energy consumption and temperature is U-shaped, and the cost difference of temperature regulation leads to the asymmetry between the left and right sides of the curve; (3) the effect of economic growth is greater than the temperature-driven effect, which is the main reason for the increase of domestic energy in China in recent years. The elasticity coefficient of income energy consumption is only 0.39, and the energy consumption will increase further in the future. Finally, six forms of extension of the model are carried out, and it is found that the model has good robustness.
【作者单位】：天津工业大学经济学院;
【基金】：天津市哲学社会科学规划课题(TJYY12-071) 国家级大学生创新创业训练计划项目(201310058061)
【分类号】：P49;F124.1;F426.2

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