金融发展与出口结构关系研究

发布时间：2017-12-31 05:11

本文关键词：金融发展与出口结构关系研究　出处：《吉林大学》2014年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：传统国际贸易理论认为，国家之间的资源禀赋差异以及技术差异构成一个国家的比较优势。当国家之间不存在资源禀赋与技术差异时，融资成本的差异将会对一国的比较优势产生影响。比较优势通过资源的重新配置决定一国在国际贸易中的分工地位，进而影响一国的对外贸易结构。一国金融发展水平的高低作为一种比较优势，也能促进贸易结构的优化和调整。金融发展对分工模式、生产模式以及出口结构的调整有着重要意义。根据比较优势原理，中国以劳动密集型产品出口为主，资本技术密集型产品出口增长缓慢。与此同时，传统劳动密集型产业的生产技术缺乏创新，导致中国局限于具有比较优势的传统产业，难以转变现行的贸易模式。如何提升贸易结构，寻找新的比较优势成为“中国制造”面临的一大难题。全球金融危机后，中国在外部需求减弱的条件下如何实现出口结构的调整与优化将是中国经济能否实现转型的重要因素。随着经济体制改革的深入，中国的金融发展取得显著成效，金融改革不断深化，金融体系逐步完善，金融工具日益丰富，金融市场的广度和深度不断提高。但是与贸易发展比较，中国的金融发展相对滞后。在经济转型的背景下，促进金融发展对出口结构的转变具有重要意义。因此，中国金融市场化改革将是出口结构调整过程中至关重要的一环。基于对以上问题的思考，本文首先对全球主要贸易国家的金融发展与贸易结构相关关系进行初步探讨，得出一般性结论，即无论是金融发展总体水平还是金融中介与金融市场发展水平，其对一国出口结构均有显著积极影响。与此同时，从金融结构与出口结构之间关系来看，金融市场为主导的金融结构更有利于一国出口结构的升级与转型。其次，本文对以往学者的相关理论研究进行了归纳和梳理，并在此基础上对模型进行修正和拓展，认为金融发展水平的提高能够促使资本密集型产品出口增加。金融体系效率和质量提高，导致资本密集型产品相对价格下降，产量增加，而劳动密集型产品的相对价格上升，产量下降。在开放条件下，表现为资本密集型产品出口的增加，劳动密集型产品出口下降。因此，金融发展水平的提高会促使一国资本密集型产品在出口贸易中比重增加，进而达到优化出口结构的效果。再次，在理论模型建立的基础上，通过构建金融发展水平衡量指标与出口结构指标，选取不同的实证方法对这一结论进行检验并得出相应结论。在第四章中，分别采用静态面板和动态面板数据模型的广义矩估计方法考察金融发展对出口结构的影响。结果显示，金融发展对出口结构影响的内生性问题不容忽视，在强调金融发展影响作用时还需考虑金融结构的影响作用。金融发展对一国出口结构有显著影响，一国金融发展水平的提高对出口结构的调整与升级有着积极的推动作用，且金融发展对出口结构的影响具有内生性；一国的金融结构对其资本密集型产品出口也有显著影响，以金融中介为主导的金融结构对资本密集型产品出口存在抑制作用，而以金融市场为主导的金融结构则能够促进资本密集型产品出口。因此，在一国出口结构转型与升级的过程中，内生性问题和金融中介与市场的相对发展将会产生重要影响。在第五章中，采用面板VAR模型考察不同金融发展指标对各个水平出口结构的冲击影响效果。结果表明，当前中国出口企业的融资模式以金融中介为主，金融中介的发展最有利于低融资依赖行业出口结构的发展，但并不利于中国出口结构由低水平向中高水平发展。同时，这一融资模式也决定了金融市场对中国出口结构的冲击影响不显著。就金融发展与经济增长之间关系及影响而言，金融市场的发展对经济增长的稳定发展更有利。在第六章中，通过面板门槛数据模型的设定与检验得出金融发展对出口结构的影响存在门槛效应的结论。重点考察了股市发展、金融中介发展、金融发展以及金融结构分别与低、中、高融资依赖行业出口结构以及出口结构总体水平之间的相关关系。分别选取伙伴国GDP增长率、伙伴国GDP总量和伙伴国人均GDP作为模型的门槛变量进行面板门槛效果检验和模型估计。股市发展、金融中介发展、金融发展和金融结构对出口结构总体水平的提升均有积极的促进作用。对于细分的低、中、高融资依赖行业出口结构来说，以上四类金融发展指标对高融资依赖行业出口结构的提升有显著正向影响，对低融资依赖行业出口结构有显著负向影响，对中等融资依赖行业出口结构的影响有正有负。这说明，金融发展能够促进出口结构由低级向高级转型，有利于出口结构的调整和升级。本文得出金融发展水平的提高能够改善一国贸易结构的结论，这一结论为中国对外贸易结构的调整与转型提供了新思路，那就是必须重视金融发展的重要作用。深化金融体制改革，防止虚拟经济过度膨胀，避免金融发展偏离实体经济需求，将优化金融资源配置效率作为金融体系建设的根本目标，使金融发展更好地支持实体经济的发展。金融改革是中国经济改革的重要内容。以金融体制改革引导中国经济转型，促进经济由高速增长到平稳发展是未来中国经济发展的重要目标。中国现有的金融体系以间接融资为主，能够快速大量聚集社会资本，，但这种在传统经济发展方式下形成的金融体制难以满足现阶段经济转型的要求，长此以往，现行的金融体制将十分不利于实体经济的发展，并拖累经济转型的实现。随着国家“十二五”规划的深入推进，中国已经步入经济结构调整和经济发展方式转变的加速轨道，转型已经成为当前国家发展的重大议题。处于现代经济核心地位的金融行业首当其冲，金融转型势在必行。健全建立和完善金融体系，使之更好地服务于经济转型，是当前中国金融发展的首要目标。随着中国经济发展方式的不断调整，未来中国经济增速将逐渐放缓，利率市场化改革的推进将促使银行业的利润增长回归正常水平。因此，银行业在服务经济结构调整的同时必须加快自身的战略调整和转型，秉承为实体经济服务的理念，优化信贷结构，大力发展小微金融、社区金融、绿色金融、消费金融等特色业务，通过差异化发展，支持和推动中国的经济结构调整和经济转型。
[Abstract]:According to the traditional theory of international trade, resource endowment differences between countries as well as the technical differences between the comparative advantage of a country. When there is resource endowment and technical differences between countries, affect the comparative advantage of a country's financing costs. The difference will be comparative advantage through the redistribution of resources of a country's position in the international division of labor in the trade, and the influence on foreign trade structure of a country. A country's financial development level as a comparative advantage, but also can promote the optimization and adjustment of trade structure. The financial development of the division pattern, plays an important role in production mode and the adjustment of export structure.
According to the principle of comparative advantage, China in labor-intensive products, capital and technology intensive products export growth slow. At the same time, the traditional labor-intensive industry production technology, lack of innovation, traditional industries led to Chinese limited to have a comparative advantage, it is difficult to change the current trade pattern. How to improve the trade structure, find the new comparative advantage a "Chinese manufacturing" facing a major problem. After the global financial crisis, Chinese in weakening external demand under the condition of how to realize the adjustment and optimization of export structure will be an important factor in China economy can achieve transformation. With the deepening of economic reform, China financial development has made remarkable achievements, financial reform, financial and gradually improve the system, financial instruments have become increasingly rich, the breadth and depth of financial market continues to increase. But compared with the trade development, Chinese Financial development is lagging behind. In the context of economic transformation, promoting financial development is of great significance to the transformation of export structure. Therefore, China's financial market reform will be a crucial link in the process of export restructuring.
Based on the above issues, this paper on the world's major trading countries financial development and trade structure relationship are discussed. A general conclusion, namely whether the overall level of financial development or financial intermediaries and financial market development level, the structure of a country's exports have significant positive effects. At the same time, from the relationship between financial structure and export structure, the financial structure is more conducive to financial markets led to the upgrading and transformation of the country's export structure.
Secondly, the relevant theoretical research of scholars in the past are summarized and comb, and on the basis of this model was modified and expanded, that financial development can promote capital intensive products exports increased. The efficiency of the financial system and improve the quality, lead to capital intensive products relative price decline, increased yield, and labor intensive products relative price rise, yield decreased. Under the condition of opening up, showing increased capital intensive exports of labor-intensive exports declined. Therefore, financial development will promote a country to increase the proportion of capital intensive products in the export trade, and optimize the export structure.
Thirdly, based on theoretical model, through the construction of financial development level indexes and export structure index, different empirical methods were selected to test this conclusion and some corresponding conclusions. In the fourth chapter, the generalized moment respectively using static panel and dynamic panel data model to estimate the impact of financial development on export inspection method the structure of the endogeneity problem. The results show that the impact of financial development on export structure can not be ignored, in puts emphasis on the influence of financial development should also consider the effect of financial structure. Financial development has a significant impact on a country's export structure, a country's financial development has a positive role in promoting the adjustment and upgrading of export the structure, and the influence of financial development on export structure is endogenous; the financial structure of a country to its capital intensive exports also have a significant impact on gold The financial structure of financial intermediation for the existence of dominant inhibitory effect on the export of capital intensive goods, financial structure and financial market as the leading can promote capital intensive exports. Therefore, in the process of transformation and upgrading of the export structure of a country, the development will have an important impact on relative endogeneity and financial intermediaries and markets.
In the fifth chapter, using the panel VAR model to study the different indicators of financial development on the export of all levels of structure impact. The results show that the China export enterprise financing mode to financial intermediaries, financial intermediary development is most conducive to low reliance on financing industry development and export structure, but is not conducive to the development of the export structure by Chinese low level to the high level. At the same time, the financing model also determines the impact of financial markets on the Chinese export structure of the impact is not significant. In terms of the relationship between financial development and economic growth and the development of the financial field, city more favorable to the stable development of economic growth.
In the sixth chapter, by setting and test panel threshold data model that financial development has a threshold effect on the export structure. The conclusion focuses on the development of the stock market, the development of financial intermediation, financial development and financial structure respectively with low, high correlation between financing structure and export structure export industry relies on the overall level of partners were selected. The growth rate of GDP, total GDP partners and partners GDP per capita as a model of the threshold variable estimate the panel threshold effect test and model. The development of the stock market, the development of financial intermediation, promote financial development and financial structure of the overall level of export structure promotion has positive. For the breakdown of the low. The high reliance on financing industry export structure, the above four indicators of financial development has a significant positive impact on the high reliance on financing industry export structure upgrading, the low Financing depends on the industry's export structure, which has a significant negative impact, and has positive and negative effects on the export structure of the medium financing dependent industries. This shows that financial development can promote the transformation of export structure from low level to advanced level, which is conducive to the adjustment and upgrading of export structure.
This paper draws the conclusion that financial development can improve a country's trade structure's conclusion, this conclusion provides a new idea for the adjustment and transformation of China foreign trade structure, that is must pay attention to the important role of financial development. Deepening the reform of the financial system, to prevent excessive expansion of the virtual economy, avoid financial development from real economy demand, optimization the efficiency of the allocation of financial resources as the fundamental goal of the construction of financial system, the development of the financial development to better support the real economy.
Financial reform is an important part of China economic reform. The reform of the financial system to guide China economic transformation, promote economy from rapid growth to stable development is an important goal of future economic development. China China existing financial system dominated by indirect financing, can quickly gather a large number of social capital, but this form in the traditional mode of economic development. The financial system is difficult to meet the requirements of the present stage of economic transformation, the current financial system will be if things go on like this, is not conducive to the development of the real economy, and drag to achieve economic transformation.
With the national "12th Five-Year" plan in advance, China has entered the accelerated track adjustment of economic structure and the transformation of economic development mode, transformation has become a major issue for the development of our country. In the modern economic core of the financial industry to bear the brunt of the financial transformation is imperative. Establish and improve the financial system, so as to better serve the economy transformation, is a primary goal of Chinese financial development at present. With the continuous adjustment of the mode of economic development Chinese Chinese, future economic growth will gradually slow down, return to normal levels of growth promoting market-oriented interest rate reform will lead to banking profits. Therefore, at the same time, the banking industry in the service of economic structure adjustment must accelerate its strategic adjustment and transformation, adhering to the service of the real economy concept, optimize the credit structure, vigorously develop small and micro finance, community finance, green finance, The special business of consumer finance, through differential development, supports and promotes China's economic restructuring and economic transformation.

【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832;F752.62

【参考文献】