上市公司财务预测信息披露的研究

发布时间：2018-01-02 05:25

本文关键词：上市公司财务预测信息披露的研究　出处：《太原理工大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在不断发展的资本市场中,会计信息发挥着越来越重要的作用。为了降低融资成本、提高自身形象以及满足投资者日益增长的信息需求,上市公司管理层越来越注重向投资者披露更多相关、可靠的信息。财务预测信息作为会计信息中预测性信息的一部分,由于其在投资决策中的重要性和相关性,日益受到资本市场的关注。财务预测信息是反映上市公司未来的价值,具体包括公司的未来财务状况、经营业绩和现金流量情况等的前瞻性信息。无论从投资者利益、上市公司自身还是社会资源的有效配置来讲,上市公司真实、善意地披露财务预测信息具有重大的实践应用价值。但由于其不可预见性以及风险性的存在,使得我国财务预测信息的披露存在很多不足之处。为进一步完善我国上市公司财务预测信息的披露,本文从美国财务预测信息披露的发展过程出发,从披露原则、法规体系和法制建设方面进行了中美财务预测信息披露的差异分析。通过对比分析,可以提炼出美国在财务预测信息披露方面的成功经验,包括完善的财务预测信息披露体系、安全港规则的引入和民事责任制度的制定。这些优点为我国的财务预测信息披露提供了较好的参考和借鉴标准。与此同时,在我国上市公司财务预测信息披露体系的框架下,本文以制造行业为例,随机选取其中的106家公司作为研究对象,一方面,对我国上市公司年报中财务预测信息披露的总体情况、披露的连续性和地区分布进行分析；另一方面,对我国上市公司业绩预告披露的总体情况、披露的特点、实际完成情况及预测误差率进行分析。通过以上仔细分析,可以看到我国上市公司财务预测信息披露方面的很多不足之处：第一,自愿披露财务预测信息的主观能动性较差；第二,财务预测信息披露的规范性较差；第三,财务预测信息披露的质量不高；第四,财务预测信息的披露未得到有效监管。在掌握财务预测信息理论基础和遵循我国上市公司财务预测信息披露基本原则的前提下,通过借鉴美国的先进经验并结合我国的披露现状,提出了改善我国上市公司财务预测信息披露的对策和建议。首次,优化财务预测信息披露的制度环境；其次,提高财务预测信息披露的准确性；再次,加强财务预测信息披露的审核和监管；最后,增强投资者的自我防范意识。
[Abstract]:In the continuous development of the capital market, accounting information plays an increasingly important role. In order to reduce financing costs, improve their image and to meet the growing information requirements of investors, the management of listed companies pay more and more attention to disclose more relevant, reliable information.
As part of the information of accounting information in the financial forecast information forecast, because of its importance in the investment decision-making and correlation, has been the concern of the capital market. The financial forecast information is the future to reflect the value of listed companies, including the company's future financial situation, forward-looking information management performance and cash flow situation. No matter from the interests of investors, the listed company itself or the effective allocation of social resources in terms of Listed Companies in the real, good disclosure of financial forecast information has great practical application value. But because of its predictability and the existence of risk, making China's financial forecast information disclosure has many deficiencies.
In order to further improve China's financial forecast information disclosure of listed companies, this paper from the development process of financial forecast information disclosure of the disclosure principle, legal system and legal construction are analyzed the differences between Chinese and American financial forecast information disclosure. Through comparative analysis, can be extracted from the United States in the financial forecast information disclosure successful experience. Including the perfect information disclosure system of financial forecast, formulate safe harbor rules and the introduction of the civil liability system. These advantages for our country's financial forecast information disclosure provides a good reference and reference standard.
At the same time, in the framework of information disclosure system of listed companies' financial forecast, this paper takes the manufacturing industry as an example, one of the 106 companies were randomly selected as the research object, on the one hand, the overall situation of the information disclosure of financial forecast in China listed company's annual report, the continuity and the regional distribution of disclosure analysis; another in China, the performance of listed companies notice the general situation of disclosure, disclosure of the characteristics of the actual completion and the prediction error rate is analyzed. Through careful analysis, we can see the information disclosure of the many shortcomings of the financial prediction of listed companies in China: first, voluntary disclosure initiative is poor; second financial forecast, less normative information disclosure; third, the quality of financial forecast information disclosure is not high; fourth, the financial forecast information disclosure without effective supervision.
To grasp the financial forecast information theory foundation and basic principle of financial forecast information disclosure of Listed Companies in China to follow, by drawing on the advanced experience of the United States combined with the disclosure of the current situation of our country, put forward the improvement of the listed company's financial forecast information disclosure countermeasures and suggestions in our country. For the first time, optimize the system environment of financial forecast information disclosure; secondly, to improve the accuracy of financial forecast information disclosure; thirdly, strengthen the examination and supervision of financial forecast information disclosure; finally, to enhance investor awareness of self.

【学位授予单位】：太原理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.51;F406.7

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