上市公司净利润、净资产、现金流与股票价格相关性研究

发布时间：2018-01-03 08:35

本文关键词：上市公司净利润、净资产、现金流与股票价格相关性研究　出处：《天津大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着证券市场的发展和实证会计理论的形成,越来越多的中外学者采用实证的方法研究会计信息在证券市场中起到的作用。其中以会计盈余、净资产、现金流量与股票价格的相关性研究最多。本文在对国内外相关文献进行归纳总结、论述理论基础后,以我国沪深两市A股上市公司为研究对象,分别从资产负债表中选取净资产、利润表中选取净利润、现金流量表中的经营现金流量和自由现金流量作为代表性指标。以F-O模型及其扩展模型为基础,利用pearson相关系数和多元线性回归模型分析了这四个指标对股票价格的预测能力及其各自的稳定性。本文从国泰安CSMAR上获取上市公司财务数据,运用SPSS进行处理,得出以下结论:每股收益、每股净资产、每股经营现金流量、每股自由现金流量与股票价格呈正相关,且每股收益与股票价格相关性最强,每股经营现金流量对股票价格的影响逐年增强;每股收益和每股净资产对股票价格具有相互的增量价值,且前者大于后者;在披露了每股收益和每股净资产后,披露每股经营现金流量有助于增强对股票价格的解释力度,每股企业自由现金流量对股票价格无增量解释价值;每股收益、每股净资产、每股经营现金流量具有持续稳定性,其中每股净资产稳定性最高,每股企业自由现金流量稳定性极差。通过本文的研究,确定了与股票价格具有相关性的财务指标,检验了财务指标的稳定性,从而更有效的指导投资者分析上市公司绩效,进行经济决策。
[Abstract]:With the development of securities market and the formation of empirical accounting theory, more and more Chinese and foreign scholars use empirical methods to study the role of accounting information in the securities market. The correlation between cash flow and stock price is the most. This paper summarizes the relevant literature at home and abroad, discusses the theoretical basis, and takes the A-share listed companies of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets as the research object. Select net assets from balance sheet, net profit in income statement, operating cash flow and free cash flow in cash flow statement as representative index. Based on F-O model and its extended model. Using pearson correlation coefficient and multivariate linear regression model, this paper analyzes the forecasting ability of these four indexes to stock price and their respective stability. This paper obtains the financial number of listed companies from Cathay Pacific CSMAR. According to. Using SPSS to process, the following conclusions are drawn: earnings per share, net assets per share, operating cash flow per share, free cash flow per share is positively correlated with the stock price. The correlation between earnings per share and stock price is the strongest, and the influence of operating cash flow on stock price is increasing year by year. Earnings per share and net assets per share have mutual incremental value to the stock price, and the former is larger than the latter; After the disclosure of earnings per share and net assets per share, the disclosure of operating cash flow per share helps to enhance the interpretation of the stock price, and the free cash flow per share has no incremental explanatory value to the stock price; Earnings per share, net assets per share, operating cash flow per share has continuous stability, among which the stability of net assets per share is the highest, and the stability of free cash flow per share is very poor. This paper determines the financial index which is related to the stock price, tests the stability of the financial index, and guides the investors more effectively to analyze the performance of listed companies and to make economic decisions.
【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F275;F832.51

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