人民币汇率变动对我国物价水平的影响

发布时间：2018-01-04 17:18

本文关键词：人民币汇率变动对我国物价水平的影响　出处：《华东理工大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：1973年布雷顿森林体系瓦解后,世界货币体系迈入了浮动时代。从外汇市场上看,汇率波动已成为常态特征。随着经济金融全球化,汇率变动对一国的经济健康运行产生重大的影响。目前汇率与物价的关系研究已经成为国际经济领域探讨的焦点问题。传统宏观经济学认为汇率对价格是完全传递的,然而通过大量实证检验,经济学家发现很多与传统经济理论相悖的现象,提出不完全汇率传递理论,即汇率非100%传导到进口商品价格和国内一般物价。一般而言,一国的货币升值有助于降低国内的物价水平,对此,国内众多研究学者都曾在不同场合表示过,应把人民币升值作为抑制物价普遍上涨的重要手段,但在实践中,汇率对物价的传递机制众多,不同的传递机制有不同的传导特点,所以人民币汇率变动对物价的实际影响程度如何,该问题的答案有助于正确预测未来的物价水平,为央行制度适当的汇率政策和货币政策提供了理论指导。本文首先回顾了国内外汇率的不完全传递理论以及国内外对此的实证研究,其次在现有文献基础上从理论模型,不同的汇率传导机制定性分析汇率对物价的传递。第三,归纳了我国不同的人民币汇率机制的形成,对不同阶段我国物价水平与人民币汇率的变动情况进行系统的描述性分析,理论分析了汇率对物价的实际影响效果。第四,运用向量自回归模型和误差修正模型,实证分析了汇率变动对国内物价的影响程度。最后结合理论与实证结果,给出适当的政策建议。
[Abstract]:After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1973 , the world monetary system has entered the floating era . As the economic and financial globalization , the exchange rate fluctuation has become the norm . With the globalization of the economy , the exchange rate fluctuation has a great impact on the economic and health operation of a country . The traditional macro - economics regards the exchange rate as the focus problem in the international economic field . However , through a large number of empirical tests , economists have found many phenomena contrary to the traditional economic theory , and put forward the theory of incomplete exchange rate transfer , that is , the exchange rate is not 100 % conducted to the import commodity price and the domestic general price . Generally speaking , a country ' s currency appreciation helps to reduce the domestic price level . For this reason , many domestic research scholars have indicated on different occasions that RMB appreciation should be regarded as an important means of restraining the price rise . However , in practice , the exchange rate has different transmission characteristics to the price . The answer of this question is helpful to correctly predict the future price level and provide theoretical guidance for the appropriate exchange rate policy and monetary policy of the central bank system . This paper first reviews the incomplete transfer theory of exchange rate at home and abroad , and the empirical research at home and abroad . Secondly , based on the existing literature , the paper analyzes the effect of exchange rate on prices from theory model and different exchange rate conduction mechanism .

【学位授予单位】：华东理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6;F726

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