人民币实际汇率对中美贸易收支平衡影响的实证研究

发布时间：2018-01-05 07:41

本文关键词：人民币实际汇率对中美贸易收支平衡影响的实证研究　出处：《上海外国语大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：自加入WTO以来，中国贸易地位不断上升。中国进出口总额从2002年的6,207亿美元迅速爬升至2012年的38,668亿美元，年复合增长率几近超过20％，自2006年起，中国对外贸易的世界排名稳居三甲，然而这也意味着中美贸易间的摩擦愈演愈烈，中美贸易摩擦的直接导火索是中美间巨额的贸易顺差。以美国为首的西方发达国家，面对日趋扩大的对华贸易逆差，多次试图干预中国的人民币汇率政策，指责中方涉嫌操纵人民币汇率，曾于2011年10月11日，美国参议院对“2011年货币汇率监督改革法案”进行最终投票，通过了对人民币汇率法案，此举旨在逼迫人民币加速升值。人民币汇率问题再成焦点议题。为此，本文围绕人民币汇率的变动对于中美贸易顺差展开相关性研究，探讨人民币汇率的贬值与否是否会对中美巨额贸易顺差产生显著影响。自中国经济进入转轨时期，人民币汇率制度经历了三个主要变迁阶段。自1981年至1984年，，中国进入人民币内部结算价和官方汇率并存的双重汇率时期，而从1985年至1993年，中国取消内部结算价，进入官方汇率和外汇调剂市场汇率并存时期，自1994年起，中国正式进入以市场机制为基础的人民币汇率制度。因此本文将理论结合实际，在综合人民币汇率制度变迁的分析和马歇尔-勒纳条件、J曲线效应等汇率理论的基础上，选取1981年-2012年的年度数据、1992年-2011年分行业数据，2006年第一季度-2013年第二季度的季度数据进行分类实证研究，采用用协整模型、VAR模型、VEC模型、脉冲响应等实证研究方法，总结验证得到人民币汇率的变动并不会对中美巨额贸易顺差产生明显影响。最后本文整理了相关政策及建议帮助改善中美贸易顺差，并对中美贸易失衡的现状提出进一步的思考。
[Abstract]:Since joining the WTO, China's trade position has been rising. China's total imports and exports climbed rapidly from US $6, 20.7 billion in 2002 to US $38, 66.8 billion in 2012. Since 2006, China has been ranked top three in the world for foreign trade, but this also means that the friction between China and the United States is getting worse. The direct cause of Sino-US trade friction is the huge trade surplus between China and the United States. Western developed countries, led by the United States, have repeatedly tried to interfere with China's RMB exchange rate policy in the face of a growing trade deficit with China. Accusing China of allegedly manipulating the renminbi, the US Senate voted through the currency exchange rate bill on October 11th 2011 after a final vote on the currency Exchange rate Supervision Reform Act of 2011. The purpose of this move is to force the RMB to accelerate appreciation. The issue of RMB exchange rate becomes the focus again. Therefore, this paper focuses on the change of the RMB exchange rate and carries out a study on the relevance of the trade surplus between China and the United States. To explore whether the depreciation of the RMB will have a significant impact on the huge trade surplus between China and the United States. From 1981 to 1984, the RMB exchange rate regime has undergone three main stages of change since China's economic transition. China entered the dual exchange rate period of the coexistence of RMB internal settlement price and official exchange rate, and from 1985 to 1993, China abolished the internal settlement price. Since 1994, China has formally entered the RMB exchange rate system based on market mechanism. Therefore, this paper combines theory with practice. Based on the analysis of the changes of RMB exchange rate regime and the exchange rate theory such as Marshall-Lerner conditional J curve effect, the annual data from 1981 to 2012 are selected. The subsector data from 1992 to 1992 and the quarterly data from in the first quarter of 2006 to in the second quarter of 2013 were classified into two groups: the cointegration model and the VAR model and the VEC model. The empirical research methods, such as impulse response, conclude and verify that the change of RMB exchange rate will not have a significant impact on the huge trade surplus between China and the United States. Finally, this paper collates the relevant policies and suggestions to help improve the Sino-US trade surplus, and puts forward further thoughts on the current situation of Sino-US trade imbalance.
【学位授予单位】：上海外国语大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F752.7;F832.6

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