热钱流入、外汇冲销与汇率干预——基于资本管制和央行资产负债表的DSGE分析

发布时间：2018-01-07 16:12

本文关键词：热钱流入、外汇冲销与汇率干预——基于资本管制和央行资产负债表的DSGE分析　出处：《经济研究》2015年07期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文建立包含资本管制和央行资产负债表的新凯恩斯DSGE模型,在资本管制和需求约束条件下,系统研究热钱流入、汇率干预、外汇冲销、货币发行、外汇储备积累和供给扩张之间的关系,并识别和分析相关政策与热钱流动对我国经济的影响及其传导机制。研究发现,资本管制是汇率干预的基础,在需求约束型发展阶段,汇率干预对我国需求扩张起到关键作用,不过也导致了热钱大量流入和外汇储备过度积累。虽然热钱流入使得人民币贬值幅度降低,从而外部需求降低,但是热钱流入引致的国内需求增加完全抵消了人民币贬值幅度降低导致的外部需求降低。最后,更强反通胀政策和正向供给冲击导致的相对低利率是我国货币发行量居高不下的主因,而热钱流入不是货币供给增加的主因。
[Abstract]:This paper includes the establishment of capital controls and central bank balance sheet in the new Keynes DSGE model, capital controls and demand constraints, the system of hot money inflows, foreign exchange intervention, foreign exchange, currency, the relationship between the accumulation of foreign reserves and supply expansion, and the identification and analysis of relevant policies and the flow of hot money impact on China's economy and its transmission mechanism. The study found that capital control is the basis of currency intervention, development stage in demand constraint, the exchange rate intervention to a key role in the expansion of demand in China, but also led to a lot of hot money inflows and foreign exchange reserves. Although the excessive accumulation of hot money inflows makes the devaluation of the renminbi is greatly reduced, thereby reducing external demand, but hot money the inflow caused by the increase of domestic demand to fully offset the devaluation of the RMB rate leads to a reduction of the external demand is reduced. Finally, stronger anti inflation policy and positive The relative low interest rate caused by the supply impact is the main cause of the high currency circulation in China, and the inflow of hot money is not the main cause of the increase of money supply.

【作者单位】：南京师范大学商学院江苏省创新经济研究基地;
【分类号】：F832.6
【正文快照】： 一、引言2002年以来,受人民币汇率干预产生的汇率升值预期和国内资产价格上升的驱使,热钱①开始大量流人我国,从此热钱流动和汇率干预问题引起学界的日益重视,相关研究主要包括热钱流人规模的测度(张明、徐以升,2008;万光彩、刘莉,2009)、热钱流人与资本管制的效率(苟琴等,201

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