近期越南通货膨胀主要诱因研究

发布时间：2018-01-08 20:11

本文关键词：近期越南通货膨胀主要诱因研究　出处：《哈尔滨工业大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：通货膨胀是一个常见的经济现象，但是高通胀在经济生活中仍然是一个热点问题。从过去的几十年到现在，通货膨胀的决定因素及其波动情况在越南一直是焦点问题。从1980年到最近越南的居民消费指数（CPI）一直呈现较高的情形。特别是1980年到1990年长达十年的时间里通胀严重。仅除了2000年到2003年之间，越南通胀率很低并且稳定在5%以下。到了2007年和2008年之间，越南又面临着两位数字的通胀率（2007年：12%、2008年：22%），是越南通胀率的历史中达到最高的数字。随着高通胀这种现象越来越明显，已经引起了各阶层人民的关注。不同的学者针对通货膨胀及其控制通货膨胀的方法，提出了不同的观点。所以研究通货膨胀的原因和影响是具有重要的经济意义的。本文的研究目的是找出现阶段导致越南经济出现高通货膨胀率的原因，并通过分析这些因素来研究预防和治理通货膨胀的方法。在总结前人研究越南通货膨胀的基础上，以及根据经典宏观经济学理论来分析和评价。理论定性分析了引发到越南高通货膨胀的宏观经济因素，然后选取了能够代表和测量越南通货膨胀成因的各个指标，在此基础上，提出了相应的计量经济学模型—VAR模型，得出引发越南通货膨胀的各个因子。通过计量经济学模型找到了引发越南通胀的确切诱因，，并实证了不同因素对越南通胀率的影响。本文的实证分析是采用越南2000年至2013年的宏观经济季度数据进行分析和检验。得出主要的研究结果是：通货膨胀受自身的影响，经济增长与通货膨胀是相互影响的。在短期内，汇率与货币供应量是两个对越南通货膨胀有明显影响的的因子。在长期中，贸易逆差因子是导致越南通胀上升的原因。
[Abstract]:Inflation is a common economic phenomenon, but high inflation in the economy is still a hot topic. From the past few decades now, the determinants of inflation and its volatility has been the focus problem in Vietnam. From 1980 until recently Vietnam's consumer price index (CPI) has been high. Especially from 1980 to 1990 for ten years. Only serious inflation from 2000 to 2003, Vietnam's inflation rate is low and stable in 5%. In 2007 and 2008, Vietnam is facing two digit inflation rate (2007: 12%, 2008: 22%), is Vietnam's inflation rate in the history of the highest figures. With the increasingly high inflation this phenomenon is more obvious, has attracted all walks of people attention. Different scholars inflation and control inflation, put out The same point of view. So it is of great economic significance to study the causes and effects of inflation.
The purpose of this study is to find out the cause of high inflation stage of the Vietnamese economy, and through the analysis of these factors to study the prevention and control of inflation. Based on previous studies on inflation in Vietnam, and according to the classical macroeconomic theory to analyze and evaluate the theory. The qualitative analysis of the macroeconomic factors lead to the Vietnam Qualcomm inflation, then selected to represent the measurement and the causes of inflation in Vietnam each index, on the basis of this, put forward the econometric model VAR model corresponding to each factor, causing inflation in Vietnam. Through the econometric model to find the exact cause of inflation caused by Vietnam, and the influence of different factors on the rate of inflation in Vietnam the empirical.
The empirical analysis in this paper is to analyze and test the quarterly macroeconomic data from 2000 to 2013. Vietnam the main results are: inflation is affected by itself, economic growth and inflation is the mutual influence. In the short term, exchange rate and money supply is two of inflation in Vietnam has obvious influence on the factor. In the long run, the trade deficit factor is the cause of rising inflation in Vietnam.

【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F823.33;F224

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